If You Think We Have Problems, all you have to do is take a second  look at the Snakes line-up.  Arizona’s best hitter is cast-off Felipe Lopez (hitting .314), who has revived his career in the desert after a  so-so stint in D.C. After that, all of the “great young hitters” that the “Showboats” boast fall through the floor. Arizona third baseman Mark Reynolds leads the mangy pack at .248, while the talented Chris Young and Conor Jackson are hitting .183 and .184 respectively. But Reynolds is the embarrassment: in 109 at-bats he has 39 strike outs. Last year, Reynolds led the league in both strikeouts and errors — an adventure in futility matched only once before, in 1965, by Twinkie’s SS Zoilo Versalles. The fans know — AZ Snakepit described last night’s game as “rancid.”

Mark Reynolds: Futility Infielder

So which would you rather have — an infield of Zimmerman (.336), Guzman (.386), Hernandez (.310), and Johnson (.317) or an infield of Reynolds, Lopez, Josh Wilson (.227) and Chad Tracy (.215)? The argument that things are bound to change once the injured Stephen Drew returns doesn’t cut it: prior to going on the DL, Drew was hitting .205.  Still, baseball experts bloviate on the D-Backs “young hitters” — Sports Illustrated called them “the envy of the game,” a common enough notion among experts who would love to have one of the youngest infields in the majors. The problem is: they can’t hit. The other problem is: they can’t field. And with Dan Haren the only great arm left in the system (Webb is on the DL, Garland is steady but not a stopper, Doug Davis is just so-so and Max Scherzer is unproven — and 0-3), their pitching is questionable. To contend at all, they need Branden Webb back. The sooner the better.  

This week’s front office solution to the D-Banks woes was to fire Doug Melvin and replace him with untested and untried A.J. Hinch, a former major league catcher with no on-field coaching or managing experience. But the problem is not in the dugout and A.J. isn’t the solution. The front office has made a number of questionable decisions — getting rid of Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson and a passel of young prospects, while signing Eric Byrnes (the ultimate showboat) to a three year $30 million contract. There are cabbies in Phoenix who would have made better decisions.

Stealing Home: One of me droogs sent along a New York Times article by Dan Rosenheck that dissects the fine art of stealing home — a Jackie Robinson special that (Rosenheck avers) is overrated.  Rosenheck says that Robinson was bold, but sometimes not smart: he stole home with one out too often, when a sacrifice fly might have gotten him plated.

Rosenheck uses a sabremetric tool called “run expectancy,” comparing the number of runs a team is expected to score in an inning after a stolen base attempt with the same number beforehand. Robinson might have done better if he had “stayed put,” Rosenheck concludes. But Rosenheck praises Robinson’s boldness: “Stealing home is like a poker player betting on an inside straight,” he says, “a low-percentage play whose payoff is great enough to justify numerous failures – but not too many.”  It’s a heck of an article and caused a flood of responses (and a Rosenheck defense) – all worth reading.  

It seems almost commonsensical that stealing home is too great a gamble for a ballplayer to take — particularly with one out. The chances of a sacrifice fly are too high. Then again, there’s something about a successful steal of home that can’t be measured by numbers alone. Robinson’s most famous steal of home (pictured above, in game one of the 1955 World Series) ignited the Dodger’s as few other events –and made Robinson part of national lore. Worth it, it seems to me.