If You Think We Have Problems, all you have to do is take a second  look at the Snakes line-up.  Arizona’s best hitter is cast-off Felipe Lopez (hitting .314), who has revived his career in the desert after a  so-so stint in D.C. After that, all of the “great young hitters” that the “Showboats” boast fall through the floor. Arizona third baseman Mark Reynolds leads the mangy pack at .248, while the talented Chris Young and Conor Jackson are hitting .183 and .184 respectively. But Reynolds is the embarrassment: in 109 at-bats he has 39 strike outs. Last year, Reynolds led the league in both strikeouts and errors — an adventure in futility matched only once before, in 1965, by Twinkie’s SS Zoilo Versalles. The fans know — AZ Snakepit described last night’s game as “rancid.”

Mark Reynolds: Futility Infielder

So which would you rather have — an infield of Zimmerman (.336), Guzman (.386), Hernandez (.310), and Johnson (.317) or an infield of Reynolds, Lopez, Josh Wilson (.227) and Chad Tracy (.215)? The argument that things are bound to change once the injured Stephen Drew returns doesn’t cut it: prior to going on the DL, Drew was hitting .205.  Still, baseball experts bloviate on the D-Backs “young hitters” — Sports Illustrated called them “the envy of the game,” a common enough notion among experts who would love to have one of the youngest infields in the majors. The problem is: they can’t hit. The other problem is: they can’t field. And with Dan Haren the only great arm left in the system (Webb is on the DL, Garland is steady but not a stopper, Doug Davis is just so-so and Max Scherzer is unproven — and 0-3), their pitching is questionable. To contend at all, they need Branden Webb back. The sooner the better.  

This week’s front office solution to the D-Banks woes was to fire Doug Melvin and replace him with untested and untried A.J. Hinch, a former major league catcher with no on-field coaching or managing experience. But the problem is not in the dugout and A.J. isn’t the solution. The front office has made a number of questionable decisions — getting rid of Adam Dunn, Orlando Hudson, Randy Johnson and a passel of young prospects, while signing Eric Byrnes (the ultimate showboat) to a three year $30 million contract. There are cabbies in Phoenix who would have made better decisions.

Stealing Home: One of me droogs sent along a New York Times article by Dan Rosenheck that dissects the fine art of stealing home — a Jackie Robinson special that (Rosenheck avers) is overrated.  Rosenheck says that Robinson was bold, but sometimes not smart: he stole home with one out too often, when a sacrifice fly might have gotten him plated.

Rosenheck uses a sabremetric tool called “run expectancy,” comparing the number of runs a team is expected to score in an inning after a stolen base attempt with the same number beforehand. Robinson might have done better if he had “stayed put,” Rosenheck concludes. But Rosenheck praises Robinson’s boldness: “Stealing home is like a poker player betting on an inside straight,” he says, “a low-percentage play whose payoff is great enough to justify numerous failures – but not too many.”  It’s a heck of an article and caused a flood of responses (and a Rosenheck defense) – all worth reading.  

It seems almost commonsensical that stealing home is too great a gamble for a ballplayer to take — particularly with one out. The chances of a sacrifice fly are too high. Then again, there’s something about a successful steal of home that can’t be measured by numbers alone. Robinson’s most famous steal of home (pictured above, in game one of the 1955 World Series) ignited the Dodger’s as few other events –and made Robinson part of national lore. Worth it, it seems to me.

We’re Back: after a nine month hiatus, River Dogz now returns as Center Field Gate. Not much has changed here, except for the name and design and links (well, that’s a lot, I guess) and we hope you like it. But if you don’t like it, feel free to protest to no one in particular, or make a comment. The perpetrators are the same: DWilly, Tom and Mark – Red Sox and Cubs fans, but Nationals afficianados (Nats lovers, really) — with their absolutely penetrating analysis and barbed comments. The rules remain the same. We get to say what we want anytime we want and without any justification. And you get to complain.

If you hate change then you love the Washington Nationals. The faces are different, but the decisions that might have made the Anacostia boys a .500 club were not made, as they were not made last year or the year before that. Now, as then, we are building for the future. This is the management equivalent of Casey at the Bat: Orlando Hudson wanted to come here with his $3.5 million contract. Not my style, said Stanley, sniffing in the air. “Strike one,” said the fans. And Jon Garland might have been had for a niggling $5 million. No thanks, said mighty Stan. “Strike Two” said the fans. We’re in the midst of strike three, where non-decisions mean empty seats, as reflected this last Saturday.

The result has been neatly predictable: the Nats plummet while Hudson andGarland tear up the league. Okay, I admit, that might be a stretch for Garland, but Hudson is hitting .385 and he actually wanted to come here. Then there’s this, and it’s not to be dismissed: he’s good. He’s no Ronnie Belliard, of course, but he’s pretty good.

Hudson is a deflection: the problem is not hitting (the series against the Marlins proved that), but pitching. Here it is in twelve words: we don’t have any and it’s too late now to get some. That means we will have to suffer through five innings of a head case who couldn’t stick witha minor league team and five innings with a juvenile delinquent. Give us your tired, your hungry, your poor, your worn out arms — your pitchers yearning to be arrested. If all he does is run red lights, we don’t want him.

Of course, the real problem isn’t even pitching.

I would have picked the Showboats to win the NL West, honest to God I would have, but then Branden Webb went down. Still, Danny Haren is the best pitcher in the league. He was 16-8 last year. One of his wins came against the Nats, in which he kept the ball low and mixed his pitches. Pure mechanics. Every delivery was the same: a machine. So now he’s 0-3, in part because the Snakes are not the Nats: they have no hitting. Still, even at 0-3 Haren is my pick for the Cy Young. You’ll see.

Gonzalez and Bonafacio: The mid-summer hiatus is over, the great travel adventure to other parts of the world has ended (with apologies for the lack of posts) and, most important of all, the trade deadline is past. But not before our beloved Anacostia boys rid themselves of useless contracts and hangers-on, and set their sights firmly on the future. It is a future that does not include Paul Lo Duca or Felipe Lopez, whose trade value was apparently so low that, even together, they could not bring a single prospect.  So be it: the Nats will not be renamed the Felipes and Paul may now peddle his talents somewhere else. Which leaves us with the question: what exactly did we get?

Alberto Gonzalez is a good glove no-hit shortstop with impressive team skills. But whether or not he can make it in the Majors is an open question, and one that will undoubtedly be soon answered when he fills in at shortstop for the injured Cristian Guzman. The fact that he once wore pinstripes and has the same name as the former AG of the current crew should not be daunting, he has a better bat and is considered a good citizen by those in the Nationals Past Time who chart such things. The Yankees traded him because they are stockpiling pitching, no matter how modest, and because they seem set at shortstop for some time to come.

The more intriguing prospect is former Diamondbacks’ Emilio Bonifacio, the 11th best prospect in the D-Backs’ organization. Only 23, Bonifacio is known for his speed but, like Gonzalez, has yet to prove he can hit major league pitching. He’ll get a chance to find out: Jim Bowden has penciled him in as the Nats lead-off hitter and starter at second next year, despite the fact that Bonifacio has only swung the bat 35 times in two seasons.

The result will be a somewhat remade infield — with few guarantees that Gonzalez or Bonifacio are any more than better-than-average Triple A players. But then, Bowden had to do something, since scouring Columbus, Harrisburg and Potomac for top-level middle infield prospects failed to find one of any quality. Plus there’s this: if you can find a player that will hit over .250 on this team (a line that neither Lo Duca or Felipe could reach), then you’ve found yourself a starter.

Is Jim In Trouble? Could be. Major league scouts think that Bowden might have gotten more for Jon Rauch and that someone, somewhere, might have given up even moderately experienced prospects for Lopez and Lo Duca. Then too, we are constantly reminded that Bowden passed on a handful of prospects for Alfonso Soriano, though his signing with the Cubs yielded some draft choices. The heat on Bowden is now palpable: while he received draftees Josh Smoker and Jordan Zimmerman for Soriano, the Nats are unlikely to continue to fill the seats of Nats Park unless Bowden can pull off something impressive in the off-season — or before. Bowden supporters point out that Bonifacio has hit .452 since reporting to Columbus and (no doubt) that’s excellent. But Nats fans would prefer he hit somewhere above the Mendoza line when he takes his place at second base (probably tonight), for the first time. You don’t need a crystal ball to figure this one out. Jim is under the gun. And if either Gonzalez or Bonifacio appear to be a bust, the fans will lose their patience, the ownership will read the attendance figures … and Jim will be gone.