Tom Boswell and Dave Sheinin’s sobering dual articles (“everything-has-changed-now-that-we’re-in-the-playoffs”) in yesterday’s Washington Post hasn’t kept anyone from playing hunches — or favorites. We should scatter all pretensions of predicting the future by studying statistics (or counting on hot streaks) by scattering sabermetrics to the wind. And play our hunches. Or favorites. Or both. So it is that, at least before Wednesday’s trifecta, my hunch was that Redbird Chris Carpenter would prove to be unstoppable, that the Rockies would be too hot even for Cliff Lee and that the Twinkies — riding Tuesday’s Tectonic win over the sinking Kalines — would upset the empire, even in the heart of the death star.

But, since hunches are hopes, I have been humbled by October’s cheerless realities: Chris Carpenter never looked worse, Cliff Lee never looked better and the Twinkies looked like . . .  well, they looked the Twins. But while hope might be humbled, it also springs eternal, so I’ll stick by my original predictions (which I should have made yesterday, just to make them more official): the Purples are the team to beat in the N.L., the Cardinals have the best one-two pitching punch in the playoffs (Adam Wainwright — below — will win tonight), the Twins can be the surprise team of the junior circuit and (yet to be decided) ”the nation” doesn’t have a prayer against the Belinskis.  

Those Are The Details, Now For The Headlines: Good news for Nats fans! The Phish have re-upped with manager Fredi Gonzalez. Actually, what’s shocking is that Marlins’ owner Jeffrey Loria was considering dumping Gonzalez for not making the playoffs, even though Gonzalez was managing a franchise with the lowest payroll in baseball . . . Even better news (and this time, seriously) – is that Mets G.M. Omar Minaya still has his job! though a source on the team says that were it not for his three year extension (signed in October 2008) he wouldn’t. Minaya is on a short string (or noose, as it were) and that, if he falls on his face, he’ll be gone. Clearly, patience is running out in New York, and most particularly among its most avid fans. Our buddy-buds at NL East Chatter are running a whole chatter on “What Happens to Omar Now?” The answer is: nothing. At least not yet . . . 73 percent of those responding to an NL East Chatter poll answer the question as follows: “we are having the same damn discussion next year” . . .

Connor Tapp (the voice at Braves Baseball Blog) has some interesting things to say about what the Tomahawks should do in the off-season. He doesn’t mince words, saying that if Frank Wren resigns Garret Anderson “I might become a Mets fan.” That seems awfully dramatic, but I know what he means: if Mike Rizzo resigns Austin Kearns I might become a Braves fan. We here at CFG note that there is a hole in Tapp’s entries between August 25 and October 6: corresponding (very roughly) to those dates during which which our beloved Nats swept the Braves in three. It is onto such thin reeds that drowning men (and fans of last place baseball teams) grasp . . . Meanwhile, our friends at Phillies Phandom are having a field day (so to speak). The Phuzzies should be confident: they haven’t lost a home playoff game in two seasons.

Having finally returned to Peachtree and Sweet Auburn after a west coast swing, and now within striking distance of both the Wild Card (they’re 3.5 back) and the division title (they trail the Phuzzies by 4.5), you might guess that Braves fans would be excited by their team’s chances. Guess again. Despite taking three of four from the Dodgers (and going 5-2 on their recent road trip), Braves’ bloggers (but, most especially Talking Chop) report a distinctive lack of fan confidence in the team. Or perhaps it’s just anxiety about the future: their next stretch features twelve of fifteen games at home (where the Braves are always tough), including two against the surging (well, “red hot“) Nationals and then three against the Phillies. August will be a make-or-break month for the Chops: after facing the Nats and Phillies (and a one game break to play the Showboats), the Braves take on the Mets (in New York) and Marlins. At the end of the month they travel to Philadelphia for three. So this is it for the Atlanta nine: by August 31 they’ll know whether they’ll be playing baseball in October — or teeing off to play 18. 

Atlanta fans are worriers. The Braves seem at the top of their game — two of their knock-downs in L.A. were decided by a Braves’ starting rotation that has finally come together. Tough-as-nails Javier Vazquez might be the best reflection of the way the Braves play. He’s gritty, low key and plays better when the pressure’s on. While the world ooohs and aaahs over Tommy Hanson (and for good reason, methinks), Vazquez has become the workhorse of the Atlanta rotation, posting a 10-7 record and a snappy 2.90 ERA. Vazquez eats innings — he’s notched over 200 innings per season in seven of his twelve years in the majors. Vazquez pitched a gem against the Trolleys on Sunday, going eight innings while giving up only five hits. The knock against Vazquez is that he’s good until the end of the fifth or sixth — but can’t close out opponents who see him the third time through the line-up. But Vazquez has all but erased that rap this year: he’s walked only 32 (32!) in 155 innings and surrendered 129 hits. He’s second in the N.L. in strikeouts with 171.

Vazquez has always been underrated and underappreciated: he was trade bait in Montreal (where he was swapped to the Yanks for Nick Johnson), then in New York (he was swapped for Randy Johnson), then in Arizona (he was swapped for Orlando Hernandez, Luis Vizcaino and Chris Young — who’s now back in triple-A) and then in Chicago (where he was sent packing — get this — in exchange for Brent Lillbridge and three minor leaguers). He may have finally found a permanent home in Atlanta.

Don’t get me wrong: Vazquez is only one of the reasons Atlanta has a shot in the east. Atlanta G.M. Frank Wren has spent the last month snapping off surprise deals: getting Nate McLouth from Pittsburgh to cover the yawning gap in center, acquiring Ryan Church for the overexposed and dissatisfied Jeff Francoeur and bringing Adam LaRoche back to Turner Field for Casey Kotchman. In three swift moves, Wren said ”not yet” to “can’t miss” centerfield prospect Jordan Schafer (.204 in 50 games), rid the team of a complainer, and shipped out an unpopular player — all while filling three desperate needs with better-than-average talent. And he’s done this all while bringing in a free-be in rookie pitcher Tommy Hanson who, at 6-6/220 looks like his release point is about halfway to home. 

So Atlanta fans are anxious? Well, ain’t we all. But after their recent 5-2 road trip — and a starting staff that matches up well against the Phillies (even with Cliff Lee) – the Braves are poised to give the Phuzzies a run for the NL East flag. Two months ago no one would have given a nickel for their chances; now no one’ll bet against em. The good news for the Nats is that they won’t have to face the up-and-in Vazquez in the Battle of Atlanta. The bad news is that they’ll be facing Tommy Hanson instead. The Nationals Nine will attempt to extend their eight game winning streak when they send John Lannan to the mound against the Braves at Turner Field tomorrow night.