You’d have to be out of your mind to think that the return of Ryan Zimmerman — scheduled to start for the Nationals tonight against the St. Louis Cardinals — won’t make a difference. He’s a “game changer,” as Adam Kilgore wrote this morning — and Kilgore produced the stats to show it: “Last season,” Kilgore notes, ” . . . Zimmerman accounted for 7.2 wins above replacement. If Zimmerman had kept that performance consistent this season . . . his performance would have been worth 2.6 wins over 58 games.” There’s that, and it’s impressive.

But Nats’ fans will tell you that Zimmerman’s value to the team is much more intangible — and important. He puts people in the stands (Zimmerman jerseys are ubiquitous at Nationals’ Park, nearly every kid names him as their favorite player and the team takes every opportunity to promote him), and he’s a strong presence in the clubhouse. It’s almost as if he’s the conscience of the team: if he were to suddenly announce that he’d lost faith in the ownership, the resulting deflation would be nearly fatal for the Lerners. So long as he has confidence in the Nationals . . . well, the fans will too.

There was just a whiff early in the season that somehow Jayson Werth might take on the role of team leader but, while Werth is an invaluable first-to-third spark, he’s apparently too phlegmatic (or aloof) to be the team leader. And, since Michael Morse is “too new,” Ivan Rodriguez “too old,” Ian Desmond and Danny Espinosa “too young” (and Stephen Strasburg “too injured”) that leaves Zim.

(more…)

The Nats took two of three from the Brewers, and might have swept the series — but for the Nat’s starting pitching. Even so, trailing by ten after the first inning in their third game match-up, the Nats made a contest of it on Sunday, pressing the Brewers’ relief corps and sending Milwaukee reeling into Pittsburgh (which, considering the resurgence of the Ahoys, is not necessarily good news). The Nats might not fare so well against the Colorado Rockies, who send Aaron Cook to the mound tonight at Nationals Park to face off against Washington starter Craig Stammen.

The Rockers are one of the four elite teams of the National League — on the same level as the Phillies, McCoveys and Red Birds. There’s a reason for that: they’re just plumb full of pitching. The talent doesn’t stop with no-hitter hero Ubaldo Jimenez. Aaron Cook, Jorge De La Rosa, Jason Hammel and Greg Smith round out a solid rotation, which can only get better. If Jeff Francis successfully completes a rehab of his left shoulder, the Rockies could have the best pitching staff in the game. Indeed, there was a time when first sacker and slugger Todd Helton defined the team, but no more. The face of the Colorado franchise is now a bevy of solid starters capable of shutting down any NL team. So, just think how good they’ll be if Jeff Francis returns.

Of course that’s a huge “if.” The Rockies have been hit hard by pitching injuries: in addition to Francis (who, for a time, might have been considered one of the best starters in the game), the Rockies are missing savvy closer Huston Street (the pay-off Oakland made for giving up Matt Holliday), who is on the 15 day DL with a tweeky right shoulder. The Rockies need Street; closer-designate Franklin Morales has blown back-to-back saves, the most recent a heart-wrenching 4-3 loss at Atlanta that followed a dramatic last-inning loss to the (gulp) Mets. If the Rockies don’t have Street (and Colorado bloggers — like Purple Row — have been speculating that he might be down for more than April), they’re in trouble. But given his return, and the overpowering front-line of Ubaldo Jimenez, Aaron Cook and the emotional, if effective, Jorge De La Rosa (whose last half of ’09 was stunning), the Rockies are the team-to-beat in the NL West. And that’s true despite the out-of-body fear that most teams face when they play Tim Lincecum’s Giants.

The Colorado Rockies held off the rallying Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday to take the second game in their five game series, 5-4. The key for the Purples was an unlikely two run homer off the bat of catcher Yorvit Torrealba, who hadn’t had a four base knock since May. Torrealba’s knock was complemented by solid pitching from Rockies’ starter Aaron Cook and bullpen aces Jose Contreras, Matt Belisle, Rafael Betancourt, Franklin Morales and all-world closer Huston Street (above). The Heltons, who won during the regular season by counting on the bats of an unlikely mix of new heroes, depended on the bat of yet another unknown newcomer: in this case it was left fielder Carlos “Cargo” Gonzalez. Gonzalez — a former Showboat prospect and a throw-in in the off season Oakland-Colorado Matt Holliday-for-Huston Street trade — spent much of the last two seasons in triple-A, while Denver’s front office waited for him to pan out. Gonzalez got his chance this year, after a series of injuries made room for him in the Colorado outfield. On Thursday, the fleet Venezuelan went 3-5 to spark the otherwise sleepy Rockies’ line up.

When the Oakland A’s got Matt Holliday from the Colorado Rockies in the Huston Street trade back in November of 2008, they thought their search for a big bat was over: the Stillwater, Oklahoma native was a three time all star and three time silver slugger and he’d been named the 2007 World Series MVP. But Holliday didn’t seem to fit in in Oakland (he hit an otherwise anemic .286 with 11 home runs in 93 games), and on July 24, 2009 Oakland A’s guru Billy Beane swapped him to St. Louis for three top prospects: Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson. In St. Louis, Holliday tore the cover off the ball — hitting .353 with 13 home runs in just 63 games, and propelling the Redbirds into the post season. He was just what Tony La Russa ordered.

Holliday’s post season experience gave St. Louis the confidence they needed against L.A. With Albert Pujols and Holliday in the middle of their order and Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright their big guns as starters, St. Louis was set to head into L.A. to face Joe Torre’s big bats. L.A. took the first game, with a surprisingly shaky outing by Carpenter. But St. Louis came back to dominate the second game: and it looked like the Redbirds were set to even the series at one game apiece. But with two outs in the ninth ining and St. Louis leading, the otherwise sure-handed Holliday dropped a sinking liner off the bat of first sacker James Loney to give the Dodgers new life. Casey Blake then walked and former Nats Ronnie Belliard singled home the tying run, before Mark Loretta’s short centerfield single provided the 3-2 walk off win. “It’s tough to swallow,” Holliday said after the game. “Obviously, I feel terrible. But I just missed the ball. It hit my stomach. I think I can catch a ball hit right at me.” The Trolleys now lead the series, 2-0.

The Colorado Rockies are one of baseball’s classically underestimated teams – deceptively streaky with a strong starting pitching staff and over-muscled outfielders, the Rockies traditionally start slow but then build momentum to seasons’ end. To say they’re streaky is only to state the obvious: the 2007 version of the Rockies rode an improbable late-season streak, winning 21 of 22 games, into the post-season before being swept by “the Nation.” The Rockies’ 2007 run to the World Series marked a transformation for the team — from the big bopper Todd Helton-Larry Walker era of the late 1990s, to a team with a more balanced and younger offense. This core group of hitters (still led by the apparently tireless Helton) is complimented by a cadre of hardthrowing and youthful arms. Helton is still the franchise’s most noted player (and perhaps their first Hall of Famer), but his reputation has been eclipsed somewhat (and even in Denver) by oft-injured but slick-fielding shortstop Troy Tulowitzski, young masher and all star Brad Hawpe, block of granite catcher Yorvit Torrealba (just off the DL — and rumored to be headed elsewhere) and Rocky Mountain handyman Ian Stewart.

If Tulowitzski & Co. are the new faces of a franchise that boasts of being the only major league team that reigns supreme “between Kansas City and the coast,” then the Rockies’ pitching staff is the team’s heart. The Cinderella story for this year is Rockies’ reclamation project Jason Marquis, who has landed a spot on the all star team and has proven a fitting replacement for under-the-knife Jeff Francis. The pitching staff is the team’s strength: Aaron Cook is prima inter pares, but Ubaldo Jimenez is clearly the team’s emerging ace — he carried a no-hitter into yesterday’s match-up against the hated D-Backs before losing out to Arizona ace Dan Haren. His arm might be made of tungsten, in his last complete game he threw 130 pitches.

In spite of the team’s recent run of wins — and their sudden appearance in the rearview mirror of the Los Angeles Dodgers — the Rockies’ front office, and particularly GM Dan O’Dowd are under pressure to produce. In the wake of the 2007 success and this year’s slow start, the Rockies fired long-time manager Clint Hurdle (who was a near institution in Denver), replacing him with Jim Tracy. Tracy has reportedly reconnected with the players, but that might not be enough. O’Dowd is having difficulty living within a budget of his own making (non-producing Garrett Atkins is making $7 million, injured Jeff Francis $13.25), and searching for ways to transform a series of moving parts into a team that can catch both the Giants and Dodgers. The Rockies have been searching for a reliever for weeks, but have been unable to put together a deal that would send Garrett Atkins packing (perhaps to the Red Sox) or land someone of the quality of D-Backs innings eater Chad Qualls or Astros set-up man LeTroy Hawkins, whom they covet.

All of this sounds a bit panicky. O’Dowd has never hesitated to pull the trigger when necessary. He traded long-time pricey Colorado outfielder Matt Holiday (and his $23 million two year deal) to the A’s for closer Huston Street . The A’s added  outfielder Carlos Gonzalez and lefty pitcher Greg Smith (currently in triple-A) to the deal. Street arrived in Denver to high expectations and he hasn’t let anyone down. He has been one of the most effective closers in the majors: posting 19 saves in 20 save opportunities. O’Dowd has also shown that he has an eye for talent – the Rockies have one of the best young outfield prospects in the game in fleet-footed Dexter Fowler (a larger version of Nyjer Morgan) and an inexpensive Holliday semi-replacement in Seth Smith, a former ‘Ol Miss prospect who is hitting with surprising power.

The Rockies are not “the team to beat in the NL West” — that would be the Dodgers — but they are not the slow-starters of eight weeks ago; and they have shown they are capable of putting together a run that could press both the Trolleys and McCoveys. If Tulowitzki can stay healthy and if, somehow, they can find another arm either for the bullpen or (even) for their starting rotation (I would rather eat shards of broken glass than watch Jorge De La Rosa pitch), they could sneak their way into the post-season. It’s happened before.