Center Field Gate

The votes are in and it appears to be unanimous: the Philadelphia Phillies are the New York Yankees of the National League — or rather, the Ponies are so good that the Yanks are the Phillies of the American. It’s not exactly a secret; the Phillies are that good. If there’s any curse on the Phillies it’s simply this: they’re on the front cover of SI, which might mean that their coming campaign will fizzle. But I don’t see how. The core of Halladay, Hamels, Happ, Howard, Utley and Werth (and the addition of an admittedly overpriced Placido Polanco) makes them the odds-on favorites in the NL Least, with the Tomahawks, Fish, Nats and Apples finishing as also-rans. It won’t be close.

What’s interesting about “the Least” is not the fight for first or even second (which will go, almost by default, to Atlanta), but the fight for third. Don’t laugh. The Marlins always seem to play over their heads, as they did for a time last year — when they were all the rage for fans who think that April matters. They’ll come back to reality in 2010 (or, being the Fish, they’ll take a bunch of mugs and win the World Series). Outside of Josh Johnson (as good a pitcher as there is in baseball) and Ricky Nolasco, their front four is shakey. They’ll have to count on Burke Badenhop to step up (how likely is that?), and outfielder Chris Coughlan will have to dodge the sophomore jinx. He won’t. True: the Fish have a power infield, with one of the strongest up-the-middle combos (with Ramirez and Uggla) in the MLB. But the Nats have their own power players, and if Stephen Strasburg arrives fully ready in June (or earlier), the front four of Strasburg, Marquis, Lannan and Stammen (and Hernandez) will regularly outpitch the Fish. So, given a little luck (and a healthy and as-advertised Strasburg), the NL Least will be 1) Philadelphia, 2) Atlanta, 3) Washington, 4) Florida and 5) New York. Or it won’t — and the Nats will suffer through a not-quite-as-bad-as-last-year season, and finish fourth.

So here’s the question: what the hell is wrong with the Mets? Well . . . maybe nothing. If Jose Reyes can resurrect his best years, if Jason Bay can be in New York what he was in Boston, if David Wright can be the bopper he was in ’08, and if the New Yorkers can find someone who scares hitters even half-as-much as Johan Santana – then the “boys of slumber” can finish as high as second. But that’s a lot of “ifs,” and a second act that features Mike Pelfrey, John Maine and a half-dozen question marks does not bode well for a team that, even when healthy, will have trouble winning 9-7 slugfests. This says it quite well: the Mets face “a rather inconvenient truth” — that even if healthy (which they’re not), they’re just not very good. So buckle your seat belts Mets’ fans: these are your daddy’s Mets.

As for the Nats — barring injury (there oughta be a default button for that phrase here somewhere), the Nats will bring the bats, and everything else will depend (as it always does) on pitching and defense. Both are better, but nowhere near where they should be. In our dreams Adam Dunn has a fantasy player year (of close to fifty dingers), Ryan Zimmerman becomes all-world (and finishes as a runner-up in the MVP voting), Adam Kennedy returns to form, Matt Capps becomes Joe Nathan (sans injury), and the platoon in right field is filled by someone like this guy. If that happens then anything is possible . . .

Since this is baseball, and anything is sometimes just not possible, the kind of season the Nats will have will be obvious for all to see within the season’s first twenty games. The bullpen is better, but it’s still iffy, and the team will need to find an early spark. I agree with the SI assessment: the early spark for the Nats will have to be Nyjer Morgan. A fast start for the fleet-footed center fielder will build confidence in a team that (after the 100-plus losses of ’09) sorely needs it. That means the pressure is on; Morgan will be expected to run the Nats into (instead of out of) games, and he’ll be expected to use his speed to make up for a shaky corner outfield defense. Which is simply to say: if Morgan proves to be the spark we expect, then the Nats will not only have a better 162-game outing this year than they did last, they’ll actually be a pleasure to watch. Especially when they play the Mets.

From time to time, our friends at NL East Chatter post the latest, best exchange between NL East rivals — with questions posed by bloggers for each team. This week, to mark the Phillies-Nats toe-to-toe match-up here at Nationals Park, I asked my colleague over at (the newly redesigned and ujpgraded) Phillies Phandom five questions about the ponies. He came back with what I thought were some pretty good, and interesting, answers. As those lovable Phuzzies are in town, I thought it might be useful to reprint the Q and A for the benefit of our worldwide audience.

Q: This question has been asked a thousand times, but needs to be asked again: if Brad Lidge can’t hold down the end of a game, who can? And can the Phillies survive the post-season without him?

A: Lidge is toast. He’s finished. I don’t know who can do the job, but my top choice is Brett Myers, who showed he could do it two years ago. Myers looks good so far working in late innings, but that doesn’t make him a surefire bet to be a great closer (See Ryan Madson). Chan Ho Park is another option, but he’s too valuable in the sixth and seventh innings. I hope to see J.C. Romero back before the end of the season because I think he has the mindset to close. But… all those options have question marks. This will be an issue from now until October.
 
Q: Cole Hamels seems to have found his stride: which is great news for the Phils in the playoffs — but is J.A. Happ now a better pitcher, and do you pitch him ahead of Hamels the rest of the way? And maybe Lee, Martinez, and Happ are your one-two-three-four in the playoffs. With Blanton there, Hamels sits. Who woulda thunk it.

A: This has been a great debate for weeks now. Here’s my 1-through-4 right now: Hamels, Lee, Blanton, Happ. Hamels, even though he’s been sub-par most of the year, is a proven winner in the playoffs. Lee, while he’s probably the better pitcher, doesn’t have two MVPs. Give Hamels the benefit of the doubt. Let him pitch Game 1 in a series, especially if he continues to pitch very well… Blanton is No. 3 because he’s been the team’s most consistent starter since May… Happ over Pedro at No. 4 because Pedro would be a valuable contributor out of the bullpen – a shutdown guy in the seventh inning perhaps (a la Randy Johnson years and years ago for the D-Backs). That’s the way the roations should set up, regardless of how each inidividual performs from now to the end of the regular season.
 
Q: The Phillies just got swept by the Astros in Houston and Charlie the Man said that his team looked complacent. With a six game lead in the East that’s what it looks like. What or who is going to get them going. And when?

I don’t know. They all feed off each other. Typically, it’s J-Roll that lights the fire, but in all honesty…Raul Ibanez is the big piece here. The guy is starting to turn the corner and get back on track. He was our best clutch performer for the first three months of the season. I think it will be a different-guy-a-night thing before the rollercoaster hits full stride. I’m concerned about the lack of hitting in key situations, but something tells me the Phillies will keep finding ways to win when it matters most. They are an all-or-nothing team and nothing will really change that. You just hope the ON switch is, uh, on come playoff time.
 
Q:  That bullpen sure is shaky: Chan Ho Park? Jamie Moyer? Too late now, you’ve got what you’ve got. But it’s going to take some management. Who can the Phillies count on in those vital middle innings?

I disagree. The bullpen is very strong (albeit banged up injury-wise) except for Brad Lidge. The Phillies’ pitching, in general, has been excellent since the All-Star break. The elephant in the room is Lidge and only Lidge. The rest of the guys are doing a good-to-great job. Hopefully, all of our walking wounded (Madson, Clay Condrey, Romero) will get 100 percent healthy before the postseason.

Q: If you had to do it all over, would you trade Michael Bourn for Brad Lidge?

Yes. I know Lidge has been absolutely dreadul this year, but nothing beats a World Series championship. And without Lidge, the greatest October in my lifetime would never have happened.

The San Diego Padres capitalized on four Washington Nationals’ errors Friday night to take the first of a three-game set from our Anacostia Boys, 6-2. After taking two of three from the Mets, the Nats reverted to the sloppy defense that had characterized the first part of their season: two errant throws to first base, a dropped pop-up in foul territory and the misplay of a rolling double in the left field corner. That’s one error on Garrett Mock, one on Jason Bergman, one error on catcher Josh Bard and one on left fielder Adam Dunn. “It was just a bad effort,” interim Manager Jim Riggleman said after the game.

Trade Winds: The St. Louis Cardinals got their man, trading three prospects to the Oakland A’s for outfielder Matt Holliday. The key to the trade for Oakland was the acquistion of third baseman Brett Wallace, who may eventually end up at first for the white elephants. The former Rockie, Holliday paid immediate dividends for the Redbirds, going four for five with one RBI in the Cardinals 8-1 win over the Phillies. Beset by uncertainty over their own financial situation — and with ownership of the ballclub undetermined — the Cubs will have difficulty matching the Cardinals’ upgrade. The Holliday trade reflects the kind of mid-season moves that both the Cards and Cubs are noted for: needing a big bat in May of last year, the Cubs signed free agent Jim Edmonds — a move that fueled their run to the NL Central flag. This year, it’s the Astros who need the bat, particularly after it was announced that Astros’ first baseman Lance Berkman was being sent to the DL for a calf strain.

 

New Redbird Matt Holliday Went 4-5 Friday (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

The news in the NL Central will have an immediate impact on the Nats: it effectively takes the Cardinals out of the running for Adam Dunn (whose availability they reportedly inquired about this last week), while Berkman’s injury puts Nick Johnson on the table for the Astros. Houston called up Edwin Maysonet from triple-A Round Rock to take Berkman’s place, but he’s not the answer at first. The regular first base backup is Darin Erstad, but he’s also injured. Johnson seems a perfect fit for the Astros, with his high OBP and good glove. Astros’ players say they will “step up” to replace Berkman, but it will be difficult to replicate his numbers. ”I’ll just say Lance, being honest and sincere, is a piece of our team that is going to be difficult to replace,” Astros’ outfielder Carlos Lee, who leads the team in RBIs, said. ”The quality of player and what he means to this lineup, it’s going to be difficult to replace Lance. I think we’ll have to get it together and carry all the weight.”

Trade rumors involving Nationals’ players have escalated over the last week: the Phillies are said to be interested in Josh Willingham, the Tigers in Willingham and Dunn and, most recently, the Rangers have reportedly sent scouts to look at Nationals’ hitters. The Nats are said to be looking for “prospects” — primarily pitchers. The trade of Willingham to the Phillies becomes less likely if the Phuzzies pony up a handful of their best prospects (and pitcher J.A. Happ) to Toronto for Roy Halladay. And shipping Dunn or Willingham to Detroit (where the Nats are said to be scouting the Tigers’ double-A affiliate) seems perverse — trading players who are actually performing for a bunch of 21-year-olds who might (or might not) turn into major league players. That we got. Then too, a trade of Willingham to either Philly or Detroit means that we will be forced to watch a struggling Austin “Mendoza” Kearns (.198) learn how to hit. A good decision — but only if you want to drive what’s left of your fanbase out of the ballpark.