There’s no predicting these things: C.C. Sabathia was supposed to be unstoppable last night versus the Rangers, the feisty Twinkies were supposed to throw fear into the line-up of the Empire, the Braves — energized by their retiring manager — were picked to give the Giants fits. That’s not what happened. C.C. struggled (but the Yankees rallied, and won), the feisty Twins went silently into the New York night and Bobby Cox could not, did not, save his team from an early NLDS exit. Which is only to confirm that there is nothing so certain in baseball as uncertainty, nothing so sure as that someone whom you’ve never heard of will become a series hero while the great ones will look, very often, just average. All that’s true, very true. And yet, tonight’s Citizens Bank match-up between Philly Roy ‘Doc” Halliday and San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum might be the closest thing that baseball has had to a perfect pitching match-up in this century, barring even the heart-thumping Greg Maddux-Randy Johnson tilt of 2001.

The Arizona-Atlanta match-up of 2001 is worth remembering. The Braves came into the 2001 series the favorites, boasting a class-of-baseball rotation led by Maddux, gamer Tommy Glavine and veteran innings eater John Burkett. But the difference, the pundits believed, was a line-up anchored by savvy backstop Javy Lopez and all-world long-ball artist Chipper Jones — then just 29 and at the peak of his production. The Diamondbacks responded with a twosome that was every bit as fearsome as the Maddux-Glavine duo: Randy Johnson was on his way to the Hall of Fame, while Curt Schilling (at 22-6) looked unbeatable. But the heart of the D-Backs line-up was filled with 30-somethings — Tony Womack, Luis Gonzalez, Matt Williams, Steve Finley and an aging and gimpy Mark Grace, then 37. There wasn’t an under-30 player in Arizona’s front nine, making them the odds-on favorites to head to the pines when the dust settled.

Then, as now, pitching proved to the be the difference — but not exactly in the way that everyone had predicted. The phenomenal duel-to-be of Game 1 turned out to be just that, with Johnson and Maddux mixing it up pitch-for-pitch. Maddux pitched brilliantly, but not brilliantly enough, giving up six hits and two runs and taking the loss. Randy Johnson was simply better, throwing a nine inning three-hit eleven strike out complete game. A masterpiece. The game went to the veteran over-30s, as pepperpot Craig Counsell and steady Luis Gonzalez dinked and dunked doubles and singles in a kind of baseball water torture. One run was all that Johnson needed — Reggie Sanders and Luis Gonzalez gave him two, scoring Counsell twice. The Braves could be satisfied, though barely, that their own big gun (Chipper Jones) looked solid, accounting for two of their team’s three hits. But it didn’t matter.

If the current Philadelphia-San Francisco series follows form, then tonight’s game — like the Atlanta-Arizona match-up of 2001 — will be memorable for what it tells us about the staying power of its center-stage ace. But the game will not determine who goes on to face the Yankees or Rangers in the World Series. That decision will be made in game three and four by a second-tier ace (like Roy Oswalt or Matt Cain), whose steady presence and lock-down middle-game brilliance (like that of Curt Schilling against the Braves in 2001) will allow the front-of-the-rotation hurler a second shot at a second win. Here’s how it happened in 2001. After Randy Johnson’s stunning out-of-the-gate brilliance (and with the series knotted at 1), Curt Schilling gave Arizona a leg-up with a nine inning performance in Game 3. Atlanta wasn’t worried — they had Maddux for Game 4. But Maddux was less than stellar, giving up four runs in three innings.

Suddenly faced with elimination in game five, and running out of pitching options, Bobby Cox rushed Tom Glavine back to the mound against Randy Johnson in Game 5 to stop the bleeding. Glavine was game: while pitching on short rest, he felt he could dominate the over-30 Arizona line-up. Still, this was a gamble — the Maddux-Glavine duo were matched perfectly to give the Braves their best mound presence with just the right rest. But Bobby’s gamble failed. Randy Johnson, pitching in his usual spot behind two other starters, dominated the Braves, winning his second game — and turning in a memorable (and even historic) post-season victory: seven innings, seven hits and his second series win. And so it is: we justly and properly remember the Atlanta-Arizona series for Randy Johnson’s two win brilliance, but the real difference was Schilling — whose nose-in-the-dirt performance gave Johnson the rest he needed, and made his win possible.

The Atlanta-Arizona model could well hold true for what we will see in Philadelphia tonight: an ace performance from an ace pitcher like Roy Halladay or Tim Lincecum. But the real test for these teams will come later this week, when Philly sends Cole Hamels to the mound against Matt Cain. If either manager — Charlie or Bruce — are then forced to throw Halladay or Lincecum out of their normal rotation spot (as Bobby Cox — in 2001 — inserted Glavine on short rest to salvage a single game and keep Atlanta’s hopes alive), then this series will be over. Predictions? On paper, Philly has the edge. It will be hard for San Francisco to match-up against the fearsome threesome of Halladay, Oswalt and Hamels. But don’t bet against San Francisco. Tim Lincecum could just as easily be the Randy Johnson of 2009 — or, more importantly, Matt Cain could be San Francisco’s Curt Schilling.

Once upon a time, and not so terribly long ago, the Arizona Diamondbacks were the class of the National League. And for good reason — the Snakes had the best pitching staff in baseball (anchored by Brandon Webb and Dan Haren), a quality innings eater with a history of winning (former Fish Livan Hernandez) a group of fast, punch-and-judy hitters (Orlando Hudson and Stephen Drew), a classic high strikeouts player with punch and panache (Mark Reynolds) and a faster-than-spit closer (Jose Valverde) who was the envy of major league baseball. Plus (plus!), the D-Backs had a solid philosophy of winning, based on the foundation that had brought them a World Series Championship in 2001: the club would focus on pitching, pitching, pitching (Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling anchored the staff in ’01), and build a strong farm system based on development and scouting. But those days are gone. The Diamondbacks of 2010 are 23 games back of the Friars and the face of the franchise, savvy righty Dan Haren, is living in Los Angeles. So what happened?

Injuries happened — and overspending. Brandon Webb hasn’t pitched in forever and is still attempting to recover from shoulder surgery (his arm still hurts, but he’s agreed to pitch out of the bullpen), Mark Reynolds and Justin Upton have been on-and-off the DL with a series of nagging everyday bumps and bruises, D-Backs President Derrick Hall and Interim General Manager Jerry DiPoto are still living with the effects of their predecessors’ decision to hand Showboat Eric Byrnes a three year $30 million paycheck — one of the worst contract decisions made in D-Backs history — and the farm system was plundered for short term satisfaction and is devoid of any perceivable talent. Worse yet, the once can’t-get-enough-of-baseball Phoenix fanbase has been dribbling away, making a $75 million player payroll untenable. The result has been a classic baseball fire sale, albeit one that began long before the trading deadline, and had nothing to do with players. Manager A.J. Hinch was tossed on the scrapheap on the night of July 1 and G.M. Josh Byrnes was disposed of 24 hours later. The firings signaled the beginning of a trend: the Diamondbacks wouldn’t just be sellers at the trading deadline (and before), they were dedicated to taking the team apart and starting over.

You can hardly blame Arizona fans for being skeptical. The current DiPoto salary dump looks as desperate as Byrnes’s decision to denude the D-Backs farm system two years ago — when Scott Hairston and Alberto Callaspo were shipped off for relief pitcher no-accounts (and Valverde’s salary was embarrassingly dumped) and Brett Anderson and Carlos Gonzalez (a curse, now, on Arizona pitching — in Colorado) were shipped to Oakland to land Haren. Earlier this year Byrnes attempted to compensate for these sins by sending Max Scherzer and Daniel Schlereth to Detroit for Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy (a good swap by any standard), but the trade came way too late to silence the rising chorus of critics who noted that dumping young talent almost never works.

While skepticism about the Rattlers’ future is in order, Arizona fans can be thankful that their franchise’s tradition of trading for and developing young pitching seems to be intact. While DiPoto received good value for Haren (Joe Saunders is no slouch) and simply cast off catcher Chris Snyder for three below average players (one of whom, Ryan Church, I wouldn’t let in my outfield), his decision to buy Edwin Jackson a ticket to Chicago for Daniel Hudson (below, pitching against “the Kings of Queens”) is paying immediate dividends: the young righty (nearly a Nationals’ property, in a proposed trade for Adam Dunn), threw a gem against the Amazins, whose death spiral (“trades? sorry — we’ll play these”) is now nearly an established fact. Hudson looks like he’s in the Diamondbacks’ rotation to stay after throwing eight innings of three hit ball — a game that, by itself, is far better than any that Danny Haren threw all year. Sure, the Diamondbacks look like a mess and, yes, there’s likely to be more moves in Arizona in the offseason. But the arrival of Hudson, when coupled with the promise of a developing Ian Kennedy, holds hope for the future. In truth, the Diamondbacks of 2010 look now like the D-Backs of 1999. That team, an embarrassing but young mess, was just two years from a world championship.