Center Field Gate

The Nats must have one of the toughest early schedules in the major leagues: Phillies, Mets, Phillies (that’s six games against the Phillies in the first month), then the Brewers, Rockies, Dodgers and Cubs. With the exception of the Mets — and a single end-of-month game against the Marlins — the Nats will face-off against a top team every single day until May. Of course (as some fans will note), when you finish with 103 losses, every team looks tough. Even so. There’s two ways to look at this: Nats fans can say it’s “not fair” (a phrase popularized by four-year-olds), or we can look at these games as tests of just how good the Nats are against the league’s best. In the case of the Phillies, at least, the results seem clear. It’s not simply that the Nats are not as good as the Phillies (that’s obvious), to complete with them the Nats will need more pitching — and lots of it.

The Nats fell to the Ponies in Philadelphia yesterday and played them even, until “the killer P’s” unloosed their hitters. For Jason Marquis, who must have come up short when the staff drew straws before heading north, the second outing against the Phillies was only marginally better than his first. Frankly, it’s doubtful that Livan, who dominated the Mets on Sunday, could have done much better. The line-up of Polanco, Utley, Howard, Werth and Ibanez constitutes a latter-day murders’ row of lumber that would be daunting for an elite team — let alone the Nats. Even so, as a guy like Jim Riggleman will tell you, a competitive squad should be expected to play the Phillies tough. But so far that hasn’t happened. The lesson seems to be that once you have your boot on their neck, you don’t dare give in. “They are a balanced lineup,” Nats reliever Walker said. “They have some free swingers and have guys that will grind it out. The balance is what gets you, because they are going to be consistent every day. You give them an inch, they are going to take a mile. You give them an extra out, that’s when they really gear up. They know they can break your back.”

Andy MacPhail’s renovation project in Baltimore is making progress, though the pieces he’s added over the winter (signing Garrett Atkins was a great idea) aren’t likely to make a difference for the Orioles in the standings. At least not this year. It doesn’t help that steady-as-she-goes second sacker Brian Roberts pulled an abdominal muscle last night — and will be out for the next fifteen days. But the Orioles are coming back, if slowly, in part because MacPhail has cobbled together one of the best outfields in baseball: Adam Jones might be the best centerfielder in the game, Nolan Reimold is a surprise addition in left and Nick Markakis is becoming an established star. Even Felix Pie (above), the Cubs cast-off (you could say the same about MacPhail, come to think of it), is starting to hit, though his dinger last night against the Tampa Bay Whatevers didn’t keep the Orioles from losing — or falling to1-6 on the season.

“Overall, our pitching is doing a great job,” Markakis said after last night’s tilt. Really? You could have fooled me.The starting four of Kevin Millwood, Jeremy Guthrie, Brad Bergesen and Brian Matusz are just so-so, and closer Michael Gonzalez (brought in from the Braves as the real deal) looks terrified on the mound. The Orioles’ front office is hoping that semi-rookie Brian Matusz is the answer to the Orioles’ annual pitching woes, but he’s inexperienced. Matusz was an elite college pitcher (at the University of San Diego) with good velocity, and his trip through the minors was impressive. Signed by the Orioles in the same year that Washington failed to land Aaron Crow, Matusz is Baltimore’s  hope for the future, even if the future has yet to arrive. If there’s any good news at all, it’s not only that Matusz is unlikely to fail, but that rotation-mate Brad Bergesen has been a surprise. Drafted in the fourth round in 2004, Bergesen was 7-5 last year with a stellar 3.43 ERA. That’s two solid pitchers for the future. That’s the good news. The bad news is that the future will come only after Baltimore gets past a season with the savvy, but aging Millwood, and a bound-to-be-average Jeremy Guthrie.

None of this is cause to despair. While the future might take several years to arrive, Markakis, Jones, Reimold and Pie are fun to watch. If only they could pitch.

Nationals fans will be forgiven if they now view Pittsburgh as part of the Washington franchise feeder system — a kind of waiting room for Nats-to-be. With the signing of reliever Matt Capps on early Thursday morning, Nationals’ GM Mike Rizzo has added a third Ahoy to the rebuilding Nats: a trio that also includes fleet centerfielder Nyjer Morgan and lefty set-up whiz Sean Burnett. The new Nats relief corps is also expected to include aging former star Eddie “Everyday Eddie” Guardado, who once notched 45 saves with the always surprising Twinkies. While the Guardado signing is not final, it is expected soon. Capps, team officials say, is expected to compete for the job of closer with Bruney in Spring Training.

With the signing of Capps, Nats fans will go into the Christmas holidays knowing that (while everything else might collapse), the ballclub’s end-of-game options will include a set of potential closers that includes a young Yankee, a steady Bucco and (perhaps) an ageless wonder. Coupled with Burnett and Clippard, the Nats’ bullpen seems stronger now than it has since the departure of sore-armed closer Chad Cordero, felled by a labrum tear back in 2007. The signing of Capps probably ends Mike Rizzo’s off-season efforts to shore-up the Nats bullpen (barring a bit of tweaking here and there), leaving the Anacostia Nine with several more holes to plug: the addition of a middle-of-the-infield glove (the Nats are still interested in signing second sacker Orlando Hudson), an add-on in the starting rotation (Jon Garland is still an option — albeit one that seems to be fading) and (as we hope) the signing of a versatile bat-and-glove man that could play second, left, short and (under a worst case scenario) third. The Nats could (could!) go into Spring Training with a rotation of Jason Marquis, Jon Garland, John Lannan and Craig Stammen (or maybe what’s-his-name) and an infield that includes Mark DeRosa or Orlando Hudson — and (will wonders never cease) two steady catchers. It’s certainly not out of the question that the signing of either Hudson or DeRosa would include a trade (and salary dump) of Cristian Guzman, who has been making noises about not wanting to switch to second.

Don’t Let It Go To Your Head: Remember all the yacking about how this year’s free agent class was weak with few marquee (ahem) players? Well, maybe. But don’t tell the Phillies — who have solidified their reputation as the Yankees of the National League. While Mike Rizzo has been busy deftly filling holes in the bullpen, starting rotation and behind the plate (and others have been sucking their thumbs about the eventual destination of Jason Bay and Matt Holliday), the Ashburns have been busy getting stronger — adding Placido Polanco as their new third baseman and engineering a blockbuster trade for Roy Halladay. While a gaggle of analysts say that the Mariners were “the big winners” in the Halladay sweepstakes (nailing down Cliff Lee), that’s not the way it looks from our perch outside a snowed-in Nats Park, where the spectre of a Halladay-Hamels-Happ-Blanton front four makes the Phillies (with a Polanco-Rollins-Utley-Howard infield) the class of the National League. And the Phuzzies aren’t done . . .

But The Mets Might Be: Whatever happened to the Mets front office? While the silence in New York has Mets fans upset, our friends over at TRDMB cite Newsday reporter David Lennon’s claim that Mets’ fans should learn to appreciate Omar Minaya’s patience in going after the likes of Bay and Holliday. After all, Omar says, the Mets are not as attractive a destination as Philadelphia and these things take time. “It’s not that they [free agents] don’t want to come here,” Omar says, it’s that the timing didn’t work out. As for Halladay and Lackey — well, the Mets were never really in the running on Halladay and Lackey – and Lackey “blindsided” the Mets when he signed with the Red Sox. That son-of-a-bitch, what was he thinking? Don’t worry, Omar says. All of this can be explained, Omar says. “Players like going to situations where they can win,” Omar says. Never fear, Omar says, the Mets have a plan. “I like our plan,” Omar says.

Yikes.

Garrett Mock couldn’t hold the Phillies — giving up five runs in the first two innings — and Phillies ace Cliff Lee pitched a shutout as Philadelphia blanked the Nats 5-0 in Philadelphia on Tuesday night. Mock appeared to lose some of his shakiness over the next four innings, pitching six innings in all while giving up seven hits. But the story of the night was Lee, who was masterful: six hits over nine innings with nine strikeouts. Lee threw 124 pitches, 84 of them for strikes. Philadelphia’s scoring included a litter of doubles: given up to Rollins, Ibanez and Ruiz. Phuzzie right fielder Jason Werth once again proved to be a Nats’ killer, honing in on Nats’ pitching with a 3 for 4 night.

Down On Half Street: Josh Willingham continues to struggle at the plate. His last solid game was on August 25, when he went 4 for 4 against the Cubs in Chicago. Willingham is 6 for September: well below the Mendoza line. Willingham’s OBP is still at .389, but that’s thirty points below the .420 peak he reached in mid-August . . . Ryan Zimmerman has also cooled off, hitting just .200 in his last ten games. Maybe it’s the long season: with under twenty games remaining and the pressures of playing on the road, it’s going to be difficult for the Nats to come up with enough runs to beat the likes of Cliff Lee . . . with all the troubles Nats’ pitching has had this year, fans may be taking the hitting for granted. But Willingham and Zimmerman are not the only ones suffering through an insufferable September. Cristian Guzman (who has been up and down all year) is 7 for 35 in September — an autumnal .200 . . .  

The mini-slump in the middle of the Nats’ order seems to have had no impact on Adam Dunn, who is batting a nifty .333 over the last ten games (13 for 39). Dunn continues to hit the long ball — he hit his 37th in Florida and is line to hit his 40th before this thing is over. Dunn might well be the Nats biggest surprise this season, with a .282 batting average and an OBP of .410. Those numbers are not only pretty good, they’re better than Ryan Howard’s numbers in Philadelphia. Who would have guessed that? Howard has hit one more homer than Dunn, but his batting average stands at .272 and his OBP is .350 — well below Dunn’s marks. Dunn hasn’t nearly equalled the best of Howard’s best years (Howard was the NL MVP in 2006, with 58 homers and and 149 RBIs), but Howard’s numbers have fallen off this year. Then too, you can whine all you want about Dunn’s strike outs, but Howard is worse: Dunn has 162 strike outs to Howard’s 168. Dunn has actually cut down on his strike outs, while Howard is about the same. Dunn also has the better eye: he has walked 104 times to Howard’s 65. So who’s the better hitter: Dunn or Howard?

Howard is on the front end of a three year contract that is paying him $54 million. He will make $15 million this year, $19 million next year and $20 million in 2011. Dunn is in his first year of a two year contract that will pay him $8 million this year and $12 next year. Dunn is hitting better than Howard, and at half the price. Compared to Howard, Dunn is a bargain. In fact, Dunn is a bargain when compared to a lot of the league’s first basemen. Chicago’s Derrick Lee has a better average than Dunn and fewer strike outs (100 in 127 games), but he also has fewer homers — though not by much: 37 for Dunn, 33 for Lee. And Lee is four years older. Lee has the better glove, of course (and it’s much better) — but it’s not a stretch to say that Dunn is a comparable hitter to the Cubbie’s first baseman and, in some areas, his numbers are actually better. Lee is getting $13 million this year in the fourth year of a five year deal that pays him the same amount every year. That’s $5 million more than Dunn. Want some more?

If you compare Dunn’s numbers with Chokes first baseman Carlos Delgado (a hell of a hitter in his prime) over the last three years, Dunn is better. And after 17 seasons, Delgado is starting the break down: he’s played all of 26 games this year and he’s 37 years old — all for about $12 million (four million more than Dunn). There’s no guarantee, of course, that Dunn will hit the ball next year like he did this year. But he’s only 29 with (arguably) his best years yet to come. So here’s what this means: it’s time for the Nats to start thinking about giving Dunn a contract extension that, even if it doesn’t put him on a par with the league’s best first basemen (like Albert Pujols), reflects the reality of major league baseball: that it’s hard to find hitters that pump forty homers into the seats and more than 100 RBIs across the plate — and it’s even harder to keep them.