Center Field Gate

Washington Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman was named the recipient of the National League Rawlings Gold Glove award for third basemen for 2009. It was the first time that Zimmerman has won the award. Zimmerman led all National League third basemen for 2009 in total chances (an MLB-best 459), assists (an MLB-high of 325), range factor per game (2.97) and games started (153).  At the beginning of the year it was thought that New York Mets third sacker David Wright was a shoo-in for the award, but the Mets third baseman suffered through a difficult year of injuries. San Diego Padres’ third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff was in the running against Zimmerman for the award — and was actively touted for it by the San Diego front office. Two Cardinals and two Phillies were also named as recipients of the honor: Phillies outfielder Shane Victorino and shortstop Jimmy Rollins and Cardinals backstop Yadier Molina and pitcher Adam Wainwright.

Things have gone from bad to worse for the Washington Nationals — with the team’s bats silenced by Padres’ pitching, at least the Nats could count on their starters to put in six or maybe even seven innings of solid work. That was particularly true for John Lannan, perhaps the club’s steadiest starter. That’s not true now. The normally predictable lefty was anything but predictable on Wednesday, as Lannan struggled through a difficult fifth inning, allowing the Friars to score five runs to extend the Nationals’ losing streak to an embarrassing six games. That makes two sweeps in a row: one in St Louis and one in San Diego — with the Nationals now without a win since the series against the Chicago Cubs. The Nats seem to have slipped back to some their worst habits under Manny Acta: of scoring little and pitching poorly — but at least playing with fire.

If Willie catches that ball . . .

While hard luck lefty John Lannan pitched well, though not brilliantly, the Padres found ways to score: in the fifth, Everth Cabrera and David Eckstein hit seeing eye singles before all-star first baseman Adrian Gonzalez hit a line drive that tailed away from left-fielder Wille Harris. The ball landed just out of his reach, scoring two runs. Chase Headley’s two-run double later in the half-inning added to San Diego’s lead, and that was essentially the game. In the clubhouse afterwards, Nationals interim manager Jim Riggleman remained upbeat: ”[Lannan] was a lot better than the line scores are going to say,” Riggleman said. “If Willie catches that ball, and I know it was a tough play, if we catch that ball, we’ve got a bunch of zeroes on the board and it doesn’t get us into trouble right there. You look for effort, and we got a good effort.” Lannan was also philosophical: ”That’s the way the game goes,” he said. “It has happened to me before. You’ve just got to tip your hat, they made things happen in the fifth. I battled today, I felt pretty good.”

Down On Half Street: Former Philadelphia Phillies All Star shortstop and Chicago Cubs manager (and now Trolleyman third base coach) Larry Bowa was in his element today on the MLB satellite radio network — he was in front of a microphone being asked his opinion. This isn’t the first time. Bowa has been here before and is now counted on as somewhat of a regular. Bowa can be obnoxious, which is why he’s no longer managing, but he’s mostly right about almost everything having to do with baseball. And he was again today. It was a fascinating interview and former Angels skipper and now XM Radio “Home Plate” on-air personality Kevin Kennedy did what he was supposed to do: he fed him softballs that Bowa dutifully lofted into the stands.

The American League is “far and away” the better league, Bowa said, and added that the A.L. East is packed with talent. He added that the difference between the two leagues is not even that close. (See, what did I tell you — this guy is obviously a moron.) Bowa then said that he thought that Manny Ramirez was overswinging in the wake of his suspension, to show that he could put the ball out of the ballpark without steroids, but that his swing would soon return to normal. “He’ll be okay,” Bowa said. That makes sense (and it’s what any L.A. cabbie could have told us). Bowa also said that it was the plan of the Dodgers to keep James Loney at first and play new-guy-in-L.A. Jim Thome off the bench: to keep a lefthanded bat ready for the post-season (another safe prediction). My own sense is that L.A. is haunted by the spectre of Matt Stairs, whose post-season home run last year so buckled the Trolley’s knees that they will not allow it to happen again. Hence — Thome!

But by far the most interesting and insightful comment — and least from a purely baseball perspective — was Bowa’s analysis of L.A.’s reason for acquiring the much-traveled Jon Garland, lately of Arizona. Garland is not simply a steady pitcher who can be another starting arm in the run-up to the post-season, he said, “he’s a very steady ground ball pitcher.” Bowa said that if you check Garland’s stats you’ll see that he pitches mostly down in the zone “and to contact” — as he did throughout his career with the White Sox, Angels and most recently the Diamondbacks. “So you have to have good fielders behind him, which he didn’t have in Arizona.” That’s not true with the Dodgers.

With the Dodgers, “who are either one or two in defense, I can’t remember which” (Bowa added) Garland can pitch to contact and get people out in a way that he couldn’t in Arizona. Los Angeles can put a defense behind Garland that will make him a better pitcher than he ever was in Arizona — and maybe even take half-a-run off his ERA. That would make Garland’s current ERA of 4.29 in Arizona somewhere in the under 3.50 range in L.A. “Which is darn good” by National League standards. That’s not bad statistical thinking for a shlameel like Bowa, who regularly harumphs about Bill James and sabarmetrics with his buddy-buds on the radio: “Bill James, you know, the guy who invented Sabermetrics,” radio guy Dan Patrick once reminded Bowa during an interview. Bowa turned up his nose. “What team did he play for?” Bowa whined. “This guy Bill James has all the answers, but he’s never worn a uniform.” Yeah, that’s right Larry. And neither did L.A. General Manager Ned Colletti – the guy who pulled the trigger on the Garland trade.

Now pitching ground balls in L.A.: Jon Garland

J.D. Martin pitched six solid innings, giving up just five hits and two earned runs, but the Nationals dropped their fifth game in a row as the Padres defeated them at the dog bowl in San Diego 4-1. Martin had the game well in hand until the top of the seventh, when pinch hitter Oscar Salazar put a Martin offering into Petco’s left field stands, sealing the victory. With the Anacostia Nine’s bats asleep, four runs were all that starter Clayton Richard needed to wrap up the victory. The Nats’ lone run came off the bat of Josh Bard, who homered in the seventh. The Padres played tough defense against the Nationals, especially in the outfield, where two line drives that might have been hits by Nats players were snagged on near-spectacular plays. Interim manager Jim Riggleman admitted that the Nats needed to find a way to start hitting. “We’re either hitting, or we’re not, and right now, we’re not hitting,” he said. ”You’ve got to find another way to win a ballgame. Part of it is that they played really well. They made plays all over the field again tonight. They robbed our guys of hits all night and stopped rallies.”

The Chicago Fire: Emerging Friars’ ace Clayton Richard took the win over the Nats on Tuesday, throwing 6.2 innings of four hit ball. His win was not a masterpiece, by any means, but part of a steady progression that has won him a regular place in a starting rotation for a team that is not that far away from featuring one of baseball’s better young staffs. Richard walked two and struck out six and is now 8-4 on the season. The tall (6-5) lefty is a former White Sox eighth round draft choice in 2005 who moved up through the Sox system. A midwesterner, Richard came to the Pale Hose out of the University of Michigan, where he played football and baseball. He expected to be a part of the White Sox for many years to come. But all of that changed at the trade deadline, when Richard was shipped to San Diego for Padres ace Jake Peavy. Richard isn’t the only young hurler the Sox gave up in the hopes of getting better. The second part of the Peavy deal was Aaron Poreda, a fireballing lefty and strikeout artist that will probably be featured, at least initially, in the Padres bullpen. Along with Dexter Carter and Adam Russell (four pitchers in all) the Sox banked a lot on Peavy. Maybe too much.

But all of this is old news. The new news is that the White Sox made the trade in the belief that Peavy would not only help them next year, and the next, but that he could be a factor in the stretch run for this season. That hasn’t exactly worked out. Peavy’s ankle is apparently healed, but not his elbow, and no one is quite sure when he’ll be back. He seems bit somehow by bad luck, or an injury bug — or something: in a rehab start before returning to Chicago, he was hit by a scroched line-drive through the box and left the game. When will he return? Will he return? Who knows.

So with the Pale Hose fading in their division, White Sox G.M. Kenny Williams decided enough is enough — and just before midnight on Monday he dumped salary and players, waving the white flag in Chicago: Jim Thome went to the Dodgers, Jose Contreras to the Rockies. While he can’t do much else this year, it’s not likely that “Crazy” Kenny is done shaking things up in the Windy City: the talk in Chicago is that Paul Konerko and A.J. Pierzynski will be gone soon after the end of the season and that super prospect Tyler Flowers (called up after the Thome trade) will be given every opportunity to win the catching job. Konerko and Pierzynski won’t be the only ones headed out of town. Anyone need an aging hitter? Jermaine Dye (who was rumored to be headed to the Giants at the end of August) is available. 

The Chicago Fire was occasioned by “the road trip of death” as some Chicago blogs are calling it, a breathtaking end-of-August 1-7 death spiral that saw the Pale Hose drop out of contention in a baseball division called — get this — the A.L. Central. The best analysis came from South Six Sox: “With the Sox sinking out of the race, facing a September of disappointing turnstile numbers, and little to no hope of the significant influx of cash a playoff appearance provides, Kenny Williams’ hand was forced. Well maybe not forced, but certainly coerced.” Sox Machine, meanwhile, headlined the moves with the description: “Go West, Old Men” — a sign perhaps of just how alienated the Sox faithful have become. Oddly, Clayton Richard’s performance against the Nats puts an exclamation point to the White Sox latest moves. There’s no question — and absolutely no doubt — that Jake Peavy is a master and one of the best pitchers in baseball. But let’s be blunt. Maybe the problem isn’t Thome and Contreras, maybe the problem is Kenny Williams. After all, wouldn’t Sox fans rather have Clayton Richard on the mound in Chicago than Jake Peavy rehabbing somewhere in Alabama?

Matt Holliday loves St. Louis. Since coming to the Cardinals, the former Colorado Rockies-Oakland Athletics outfielder is hitting .376 with a .438 OBP for the Redbirds. On Saturday, his three run homer all but decided the 9-4 contest, giving the loss to Nats’ starter Craig Stammen. And so after taking two of three from the struggling Cubs in Chicago, the Nats have now dropped two in St. Louis, but with hopes that the team can recover on Sunday in the final game of a three game set. On Sunday night, the Nats will travel to San Diego to take on the resurgent Friars, who are riding a  miraculous three game winning streak against the sinking Florida Marlins. Holliday’s homer came in the first, and while it did not seal the game for the Redbirds, it cast a bright light on the Cardinals’ strength since the trading deadline, when Holliday arrived: a team that could break out the big bats and score a slew of runs in backing what is one of the N.L. strongest starting staffs.

A disappointed Elijah Dukes struck out with the bases loaded in the 7th (AP/To Gannam)

“That’s what makes their lineup good,” Stammen said. “They’ve got multiple guys that can hurt you, back-to-back-to-back,” Craig Stammen admitted after the game. “When I went out there, I was like, ‘You know what? Have fun. Have fun trying to get the best hitters in the game out.’ And for the most part, it was kind of fun, except when they got me.” Stammen was not only victimized by Holliday. A key error by Cristian Guzman in the fifth inning helped the Cards score four unearned runs after two outs. Stammen defended his shortstop. Guzman has made enough plays for me this year that I’m not really worried about the one mistake that he makes,” said starter Craig Stammen. Adam Dunn provided Washington’s power, hitting his 35th home run in the 6th.

Down On Half Street: It seems the only time anyone in the N.L. Least can win a game is when they play each other. At least that’s the way it’s been lately. The Mets, reeling from a raft of injuries and the effects of age, were pummeled by the Cubs on national television on Saturday, 11-4, with Cubs supersub Jake Fox hitting a grand slam off of Mets youngster Bobby Parnell. Parnell is the hope of the future, but he’s had a rocky August. Nevertheless, the team pledges that “The Bobby Parnell Project” as they call it, will continue. Parnell is fairly philosophical about it all, admitting that his last outings have been “up and down.” Mostly down, actually . . .

It’s not possible for things to be worse in Florida, but they (nearly) are. You get the feeling that this is a ballclub that is on the verge of taking itself apart. On Friday, versus the little brown priests, Chris Volstad barely made it to the top of the dugout steps before he was shipped out to New Orleans.  Volstad, all 6-8 of him, lasted 1.2 innings (but just barely) and gave up six earned runs. He had a 5.08 ERA in the show. (We’ll take him.) On Saturday, the Marlins (hoping to catch the Phillies) sent out their ace, Ricky Nalasco. But they forgot to bring their bats. In six innings they mustered four hits against no-name Friars’ hurler Wade LeBlanc. Don’t underestimate Wade — he has an ERA of 9.58. Either Wade looked like Roger McDowell, or the Phish looked like the Bad News Bears. One guess . . .

Up in Philadelphia, things are proceeding apace for the Phuzzies, who are breezing their way to a division crown. Out in South Philly, the guys who stand around on the corner and talk tough are even trying to figure out the dimensions of the statue to Cliff Lee that will grace the front of the Philadelphia Art Museum — where they never go. Right next to the one of that other great Philly cultural icon, Rocky Balboa. But the Cliff Lee Express was derailed on Saturday, when the Chops decapitated Lee in front of a sold out crowd at Citizens Bank Park. The Chops barrage of homers (Diaz, Escobar, Anderson, Jones) reached such a din that it was like listening to the 1812 Overture. “It’s hard to get good results when you’re throwing pitches belt high and down the middle of the plate,” Lee said after the game. ”That’s basically what happened. I feel good about throwing strikes, working ahead and not walking people, but I put myself in positions to put them away and I missed up and down the middle. If you consistently do that, that’s what’s going to happen.” The final butcher’s bill? 9-1 Atlanta.

While Nats fans focus on the shelling Nats’ bats are capable of imposing — evidence of which was on full display at Cincy’s Great American Ballpark on Saturday – victims of the Anacostia Nine wonder how their team can lose to a club that is “a joke” and “one of the worst teams in baseball history.” Reds fans are the latest such whiners, trodding ground already worn by the footsteps of bloggers from Miami. ”This year I haven’t really considered the Washington Nationals a real team. They’re just so bad, it’s hard to take them seriously,” Cincinnati blogger Red Hot Mama writes in the wake of the Nats pasting of the Reds. ”I mean, they’ve consistently been winning only a third of the team [their games] for most of the year. In the world of bad teams, that’s truly atrocious.”

Red Hot Mama (the most interesting of all Reds’ blogs — in my humble opinion) is not alone in underestimating the Nats. For baseball beat reporter John Fay, it’s not so much that the Nats are good, it’s that the Reds are bad. This path is also well-worn: when the Nats beat up on Dan Haren at Nationals Park last week, “Baseball Tonight”  commentators attributed the loss not to the Nats ability to hit, but to Haren’s unusally poor outing. When the Nats are bad it’s because they’re bad, when the Nats are good it’s because they’re lucky. Of course, not only are the Nats not even close to being the worst team in baseball history, if they continue to win games at the current rate they may well catch the other “worst” teams in the MLB: The Kansas City Royals, Pittsburgh Pirates and San Diego Padres. It’s even possible to make the argument that the Nats post-July 4 record is not only pretty good — it’s a lot better than the other “atrocious teams” in the majors. The Nationals have played forty games since Independence Day, and they’re 20-20. That’s enough to vault them out of last place in the ESPN power rankings — ahead of the Monarchs, Ahoys and Friars. That hasn’t happened yet, but it should. And just think, this from ”a joke” and “one of the worst teams in baseball history.”

It’s no secret: the Nats’ revival is more due to their ability to swing the wood than throw the horsehide. This was on full display in the ballpark beside the Ohio yesterday. When the Reds came to bat in the fourth, the Nats were leading 7-0 and starter Johnny Cueto was sitting on the bench next to a shell-shocked Dusty Baker. By the time the game had ended (with Nats’ smiles all around), our Anacostia boys had pulled out a 10-6 victory. The Nats’ attack included fourteen hits and an Adam Dunn home run. Morgan, Belliard (Belliard!!), Zimmerman, Dukes, Gonzalez and Nats’ starter J.D. Martin had two hits each — the nail-in-the-coffin stroke coming from a still struggling Alberto Gonzalez, who scorched a double just inside the bag at third, scoring three. The Nats needed all the hits they could get. Starter Martin was game, but not that effective (the Reds threatened in nearly every inning), while reliever Logan Kensing (usually effective — after being recalled from Syracus), gave up four earned runs and lasted less than an inning.

It’s true: the Nats have been “truly atrocious” — as Reds bloggers would have it. They’ve won only 42 games. They’re 33 games under .500. They’ve “struggled” all year. But hope springs eternal: they could catch the Padres, Pirates and Royals in the standings. Why, they could even catch the Reds. In the world of bad teams (teams like, ah . . . the Cincinnati Reds), that’s really amazing. Or maybe it isn’t.

While the Nats were in the midst of getting roughed up in Pittsburgh (5-4 on Friday, 11-6 tonight), interim GM Mike Rizzo was joining the swarm of the none-too-subtle. Though Rizzo’s Friday afternoon disquisition on his reason for trading first baseman Nick Johnson and lefty reliever Joe Beimel was more than defensible (”young, controllable, up-sided starting pitchers are like gold in the game right now,” he once said), his post-deadline statement contained a pointed defense of the Nationals, their front office and their ownership. This was the line: “We are not rebuilding. We are building. We are not far from being a good team.” I’ve been thinking about what Rizzo said for the last twenty-four hours (okay, I’ve done some other things) and it’s actually pretty interesting. I wonder if it’s true?

Rizzo’s intention was to reassure Nats’ fans that the team’s front office knows what it’s doing, while rejecting the notion that the Nats have to get worse before they can get better. The pieces are almost in place, Rizzo says. The team is close. Itchy, itchy close. How close? Rizzo’s statement implied that being a playoff contender (or at least .500 ballclub) is just around the corner. No one expects that to happen this year, of course (the Nats’ plunge in Pittsburgh is just another example of why), but it could easily happen next: particularly with a starting rotation of John Lannen, Jordan Zimmermann and (perhaps) Craig Stammen — with additions (Washington Post columnist Tracee Hamilton listed them for us this morning) of Ross Detwiler, Shairon Martis, Collin Balester, J.D. Martin and Garrett Mock. Just for giggles, let’s throw in the guy with “the best change-up in the Marlins’ system,” Aaron Thompson and wunderkind Stephen Strasburg. So it’s true: the Nats have a puppy brigade of potential pitchers that might someday comprise one of the most formidible starting rotations in baseball. Potentially. Someday.

In saying that the Nats are “building,” and “not rebuilding,” Rizzo was subtlely comparing himself to a sheaf of other baseball GMs who spent Friday auctioning off their best players to the highest bidder. Padres’ GM Kevin Towers traded ace Jake Peavy for an entirely new pitching staff, Cleveland dealt their recent Cy Young winner and the face of their franchise for four Phuzzie prospects, the Pirates traded their middle infield (and a lot more) for a potential star first basemen and a bucket of balls and the A’s (after parting with the one off-season acquisition that they hoped would solidify their line-up) shipped their other best hitter off to Minnesota for a Montessory graduate who might not get to the majors until 2014. There could be a mission to Mars before this kid plays. These moves weren’t made because the Padres, Indians, Pirates and A’s think they’re a player-or-two away from a championship — they were made because they’re convinced they’re not.

Friday’s trade deadline was Rizzo’s most important statement as the Nats’ interim GM: not because of who he traded, but because of who he didn’t. Unlike the Friars, Tomahawks, Ahoys and White Elephants the Nats are adding pieces, not giving them away. It’s a hell of a statement if you think about it. The Nats (though more specifically Mike Rizzo) are convinced that with a little more pitching (or, perhaps, a lot more pitching) a team with a foundation of Dunn, Flores, Willingham, Zimmerman, Morgan and maybe even Guzman is good enough to win. Okay, a few more pieces here and there would help (a couple free agents, but probably nothing too daring — and someone to fill the baseball equivalent of the Grand Canyon at second), but any team that boasts three hitters who can stroke at least 25 (or more) homers each year (and that boasts the league’s seventh best OBP) ought to be able to contend. Frankly, I like the gamble because I think that Rizzo’s right: the core is solid and eventually, and inevitably, the pitching should come. But let’s not kid ourselves; this is a gamble — and it’s a pretty big one at that.

Austin Kearns’ tenth inning rightfield gapper scored Nyjer Morgan from second and the Washington Nationals sealed a two of three series victory over the San Diego Padres at Nationals Park on Sunday. Kearns, who has been struggling all year, was mobbed by his teammates after the victory and was emotional, if soft-spoken, in a MASN post-game interview. Lefty John Lannan was brilliant through eight innings of five hit baseball, but the Nationals could not hold the lead, as closer Mike MacDougal gave up the tying run in the bottom of the ninth. Lannan was the Nats’ star, even to the point of outhitting his teammates — no one in the line-up was able to register more than one hit, excepting the lefty hurler, who recorded two. Lannan must now be considered one of the premier lefthanded pitchers in the NL: he threw 81 pitches, 59 for strikes in attempting to notch his eighth win. With the GWRBI, Kearns raised his season batting average to .201. Kearns was brought into right field as a defensive replacement by Nats interim-manager Jim Riggleman in the ninth.

Kearns Mobbed At Nats Park Sunday

 Down On Half Street: The Nats travel to Milwaukee for four against the Brewers, who are 7-14 in July while attempting to claw their way to the top of the NL Central standings. There’s no doubt the Beer Makers can hit, the question is whether their starting pitching can stand up over the stretch run. Yovani Gallardo, Jeff Suppan, Braden Looper and Manny Parra (6.42) have been struggling, though the best among them (Gallardo) sports a 3.09 ERA . . . Anderson Hernandez was a surprise starter for the Nats at second on Sunday, perhaps a purposeful vote of confidence from Jim Riggleman after Washington Post reporter Bill Orem reported that Riggleman had said that Hernandez was not the team’s future at second base. “We’ve kind of come to the conclusion, whether we’re right or wrong, that Anderson is best going to help this organization as a utility player,” Riggleman told Orem . . .

Nats first baseman Dmitri Young tore his left quad in a game at Harrisburg on July 18, Nationals Journal is reporting, and “is likely finished as a Nat” . . . In what was probably Roy Halladay’s last start in Toronto, on Friday, the Blue Jays drew 24,161 fans. The Blue Jays were playing Tampa Bay. That same day, the worst team in baseball (that would be the Nats) drew only 3,000 fewer. They were playing the Padres, the second worst team in the National League. Earlier this year, Baseball Tonight’s Tim Kurkjian questioned whether Washington could support a major league franchise. Do you suppose Tim will ask the same question about Toronto? After all, the Nats are outdrawing the Blue Jays, who are three games under .500. The Nats, meanwhile, are 39 games under .500 . . . First round draft pick Drew Storen is burning up the minor leagues and has been promoted from low-A Hagerstown to high-A Potomac . . .

Adam Dunn’s grand slam home run in the bottom of the second inning — and Tyler Clippard’s dominant four innings of relief work — powered the Washington Nationals to a 13-1 victory over the San Diego Padres at Nationals Park on a wet Saturday night. The game was suspended for more than three hours due to rain, resuming at just after 11 p.m.  and finishing just over two hours later. Dunn’s slam came after Ryan Zimmerman had homered in the first against Padres’ starter Tim Stauffer. San Diego pitching provided a Nats’ smorgasbord: Nyjer Morgan was 4 for five, Cristian Guzman was 3 for 5, Ryan Zimmerman was 3 for 5 and Josh Willingham was 2 for four. Adam Dunn and Ryan Zimmerman accounted for eight of the Nationals’ thirteen runs.

Nats’ reliever Tyler Clippard was impressive in four innings of work, striking out seven Friars — a Nats record for a reliever. Clippard’s outing lowered his ERA to 1.93. Clippard, who has spent his career up to this year as a starter, has thrived as a reliever since being recalled from triple-A Syracuse. “I’m a guy that needs to beat you with all of my pitches,” Clippard acknowledged recently. “Coming out of the bullpen with four pitches, I feel hitters don’t see that a lot. I went on the mound knowing that, and I had a lot of confidence.” Clippard used all of his pitches against the Padres on Saturday night: he threw 56 pitches (37 for strikes), while giving up only one hit and walking one. Clippard has gained confidence in his fastball, throwing it on pitchers’ counts. Padres’ batters couldn’t catch up to his 96 mph heater; the former Yankee prospect registered five flyballs or pop-ups in addition to the seven strikeouts.

The San Diego Padres have had a volatile, if often unsuccessful, history. Founded in 1969 as an expansion franchise, “the Friars” spent their first six years in last place, before future Hall of Famer Dave Winfield (22 seasons, 3110 hits, 465 home runs) was signed out of Minnesota as a first round draft choice in 1973. The Padres finished first in the NL West in 1978 and went to the World Series in 1984, where they lost to the Detroit Tigers in five games. Tony Gwynn was just 24 in 1984, but he became the face of the franchise after Winfield was signed by the Yankees. The Winfield-Gwynn “switch off” seems emblamatic of the franchise: the Friars seem always to have one future hall of famer and face-of-the-franchise in tow: in the 1970s it was Winfield, in the 1980s and 1990s it was Gwynn, now it’s San Diego native and first baseman Adrian Gonzalez.

Padres’ fans will undoubtedly take issue with that description, arguing that the Padres are a successful franchise that is deeply rooted in the San Diego community. That’s true now, but it wasn’t for many years. In 1974, the Padres were on the verge of coming to Washington — baseball card companies had even changed their card design to reflect the move. Instead, the team was sold to McDonald’s mogul Ray Kroc who, the next year, apologized to fans for his teams’ play over the team’s public address system: “I’ve never seen such stupid playing in my life,” he said. Padres’ fans will also point out that the team’s front office has a reputation for savvy trades: landing Gonzalez from Texas in 2006 for minor leaguer Billy Killian and pitchers Adam Eaton (now with Baltimore) and Akinori Otsuka. True enough. But for every Killian-for-Gonzalez trade there is an offsetting and haunting swap: like the 1981 trade that sent superstar Ozzie Smith to St. Louis in exchange for Sixto Lezcano and Gary Templeton. Padres’ fans are also quick to note that perhaps baseball’s best all-time reliever, Trevor Hoffman, was a Friars’ mainstay before moving onto Milwaukee at the beginning of the year. That’s true, but it’s also irrelevant. That was then, this is now.

The 2009 San Diego Padres bear no resemblance to the 1984 NL champs, nor the 1998 Gwynn-Hoffman nine (which lost the series in four to the Yankees) nor even to the 2006 Western Division winners. While the team has gained a cadre of dedicated fans (and committed themselves to San Diego with the building of Petco Park in 2004) last year’s cash-strapped Padres finished the season with 99 losses and have been in rebuilding mode since: attempting to off-load all star pitcher Jake Peavy for prospects and dangling Gonzalez to teams in lieu of paying him added millions when his contract is up in 2010. The club was also victimized by an off-season divorce of primary owner John Moores’ and his wife Rebecca, who fought for custody of their lavish houses — and the Padres. This is the team’s story: not of on-the-field heroes, but off-the-field eccentrics who have been undercapitalized (first owner C. Arnholdt Smith), weird (Ray Kroc), parsimonious (TV producer Tom Werner) and absent (Moores, who rarely attends Padres’ game).

Still, it is hardly the place of Nats’ fans to scoff at such a history. The Padres boast one of the games best pitchers (in Peavy, who is now on the DL) and one of its potential greats (in Gonzalez). An all star pitcher? One of baseball’s potential greats? The Nats have neither. The Nats take on the Padres in a three-game set beginning at Nationals’ Park tonight, with Garrett Mock (0-3) facing off against Matt Latos (0-1). The two teams will face-off again tomorrow (Tim Staufer is scheduled to go against J.D. Martin) and then on Sunday (with Chad Gaudin slated to face John Lannan).

My friend Dwilly (his picture below) — handsome guy, don’t you think? –

… anyway, my friend Dwilly has said he will post his predictions, but he was pretty lousy about his criticism of my own picks: “I agree that Dontrelle’s best days are behind him,” he wrote, “but the best pitching staff in Cleveland?!? You’re smoking the wrong stuff.” So I checked, and my good friend — the man in the floppy hat — is just dead wrong. I’m smoking the right stuff. And what is that stuff? Why it’s Special Chicago Cubs Victory Weed! that’s what it is. This will be the year the Cubs will finally break the curse, though it will take some time. You see, the Cubs have “grass is greener” disease: they think if another team has a player (any player) he must be pretty good and they want him. Exhibit A: this guy signed this guy (oops, sorry, I meant this guy )and sent this guy to AAA. Does Jim Hendry really believe that Reed Johnson is a better ballplayer than Matt Murton? C’mon. Then the Cubs proudly announced their starting five, which included Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis. I marked the occasion by vomiting.

So here’s what’ll happen. The Cubs will play .500 ball until the end of May, at which point Lou will throw three buckets of Gatorade around the clubhouse, scream at some people, send Dempster back to the bullpen (or give him his unconditional release), trade Jason Marquis and make Matt Murton outfielder number four. Lou did this last year, tinkering and tinkering and then fighting with the umps and the Cubs were better for it. The guy can flat out manage. And when he does that — when he tells Hendry the Cubs are Manishevitz with what they have and let’s-just-play-the-fricking-game — here’s how I’ll feel:

Our beloved Nats are a different story entirely — but hardly a bad one. John Kruk said that he thought Ryan Zimmerman could hit 50 home runs this year. Well, maybe not: but 40 is certainly in the cards. But the story for the Nats will be the comeback of Austin Kearns, who will hit at least 25 home runs and bat a solid .290, putting all his critics to shame. Now I know that Kearns looks a little, well … Kentucky … but he’s a gamer. The Nats will struggle, forcing Manny to make the decisions he doesn’t want to make — he’ll bring Tyler Clippard or Garrett Mock or Ross Detwiler in from Columbus (or wherever) and one of these guys will step up. And then Manny will make the most important decision he can make: he’ll put Dimitri Young back at first. Why? Because these kids need him. Last year, during John Lannan’s second outing — when he was visibly nervous — the camera caught Dimitri at first base staring at him, nodding and saying: “C’mon John, you can do this.” And I thought: now we know why they gave that man $10 million. He’s the heart of the team. He’s worth every penny of it. Anything else? Oh yeah, Lastings will do well in Center, but the question of whether Elijah Dukes can or will do whatever he is supposed to do (or whether it will be Wily Mo all the time), will be answered by another question: “Can Justin Maxwell play left field?” And long about the end of July, the Odalis Perez era in Washington will end.

And not a moment too soon.

The Mets and Phillies are the class of the rest of the league, though I wouldn’t stick with the Mets for too long: it takes more than a year to recover from a collapse like that (and wasn’t it a thing of beauty!) and the Braves will catch ‘em. The Dodgers will eat up the West (have you seen the Padres outfield?) and the Rockies will revert to form: Jeff Francis is their only pitcher. I have officially put the Arizona Assholes last, but only because (as you know) I hate ‘em. But they’re a hell of a team. That leaves the Brew Crew (who are in the wrong league) and the also-rans of the Central. The Crew will self-destruct because the problem in Milwaukee is not on the field, it’s in the clubhouse. Ned will be gone by the end of the year.

So here we go:

National League East 

[TABLE=6]

National League Central

[TABLE=7]

National League West

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I’m going to play some favorites here, but this is what this is all about. 2008 will be the first year that a Nats player gets votes for the MVP (Zimmerman), but the award will go to Troy Tulowitzki. Check his numbers: There’s just no end to what this guy can do and everyone should see a Rockie’s game just to watch the left side of their infield. The Rockie’s problems are on the mound and they did little in the off-season to solve them. As for the “Assholes,” my hatred apart, Brandon Webb is something to behold — and certainly good enough to win the Cy Young. It’s the Dodgers in the playoffs, but only by a process of elimination: the West is filled with teams that want to pass the baton to someone else. In the end, Joe Torre will know what to do and he will do it — with the help of Dodger pitching. That leaves the Phillies, Cubs and (after the collapse of the Mets in, oh say — August) Braves. For the first time since ’45 those lovable losers, those mighty slugs, the team that traded Lou Brock, the choking folding Cubs of ’69, those little bears by the lakeside, those insulters of goats, take the league and head to Cleveland for the World Series.

Where they get swept.