Center Field Gate

This is the way the ratings work: if you want people to listen to you, you had better do something interesting — and local. And so, to celebrate Mark McGwire’s coming out party on Monday, one local sports talk show asked its listeners to decide who had hurt their sport more: Mark “the needle” McGwire? Or Washington basketball semi-great Gilbert “Wyatt Earp” Arenas. The calls flooded in, though Sports Talk Radio afficianados are nothing if not predictable. If you don’t like baseball then Mark McGwire is “fatal to the game” (as one caller would have it) and if you don’t like basketball (”Let’s get ready to Gam-blllllllle“) then Arenas is a talisman of “a league of thugs.” There’s a better answer: if Mark McGwire had brought a gun into the Cardinals locker room he would have been immediately suspended for half-a-season – and right now he’d be in the Baseball Hall of Fame.

McGwire’s sin, or so it seems to us (and here we are — after a long hiatus), is not so much that he used steroids (didn’t we already know that), but that he took so long in admitting it. Oh, and in admitting it . . . well, he didn’t really admit it: he didn’t avow that somehow it had increased his power (which is what steroids do) and he refused to acknowledge that without them he might not have hit the 70 home runs that made the ‘98 season so memorable. That is to say, twenty-four hours after coming clean, McGwire is now being castigated for not really “coming clean.”

The most outspoken McGwire critics appeared on the MLB Network in the backwash of McGwire’s interview with Bob Costas. “The fact is, it is a form of cheating. And the question in my mind is can you award a guy with the highest award in baseball [election to the Hall of Fame] if he cheated? And my answer is no,” Peter Gammons said. Gammons took a surprising view: he said he had voted for McGwire’s entry before admitting to taking steroids, but that he would not do so now — and he predicted that it would be “a couple of tough years” for McGwire. That is to say: there’s no reward for coming clean, at least in Gammons’ mind, and it might have been better for him if he kept his mouth shut. “He wanted to be in uniform [as the new St. Louis Cardinals hitting coach] more than he wanted to be in the Hall,” Gammons reflected. There’s something to that: our guess here at CFG is that Cardinals’ owner Bill DeWitt probably insisted that McGwire clean up the past — if for no other reason than to keep the press from hounding him through all of Spring Training and beyond. But that meant a public admission and an apology. McGwire agreed.

MLB Networker commenter Joe Magrane added his own voice, wondering whether McGwire’s admission was really an admission — McGwire admitted to taking steroids to “heal faster,” Magrane noted, but without explicitly admitting that he used them. “I just don’t buy it,” Magrane said. MLB Cardinals’ reporter Matthew Leach had it the other way: “If there was anything that surprised me about the whole deal, it’s that he was a little more explicit than I thought he would be.” Leach then added a classic zinger: McGwire apologized, but without really saying what he was apologizing for.

Yeah, I buy that — but let’s get serious. McGwire could come absolutely clean (”I put the needle right here, Bob , because I knew it would help me break the Maris record) but such an admission, while fueling America’s twisted obsession with public and tearful repentence, wouldn’t make any of us actually feel any better. We still wouldn’t know what to do with all those records and (for those of us who watched every minute of the ‘98 season) we still wouldn’t know how to think about that day when Mark and Sammy made baseball history. (All I can say is, thank God Sammy didn’t take ‘em!) And that kind of admission (an I-did-it-just-to-hit-home-runs admission) might actually make us feel worse. Then too — lest we forget —  Bud and a gaggle of owners and senior baseball executives were all arrayed in the box seats at Busch watching when Mark and Sammy put on their show. And while Bud ”Claude Rains” Selig has appointed every kind of commission possible to investigate the problem, he stood and cheered just like the rest of us when Big Mac put one over the McDonald’s sign to break the record: ”Steroids? Steroids? I’m shocked to learn there were steroids in baseball.”

McGwire apologized and wants to coach St. Louis hitters. Let’s leave him alone. And let’s hope, for the sake of the Nats, that he does a lousy job.

That glazed and puzzled look that has appeared on the faces of so many other post season teams (the St. Louis Cardinals yesterday, and the Chicago Cubs last year, to name just two) is now being worn by the Boston Red Sox. The A.L.’s wild card entry was stunned by a ninth inning rally in Boston on Saturday, and swept in three games by the Los Angeles Angels to be eliminated from the playoffs. The Bosox appeared headed for a sure win in their head-to-head match-up against the Belinskis, leading the Halos 6-3 heading into the 9th inning at Fenway Park — with their ace closer, Jonathan Papelbon on the mound. But with two outs, Papelbon’s down-and-out or up-and-in stuff failed him: Erick Aybar singled, Chone Figgins walked and Bobby Abreu doubled to tighten the contest. Even then, the Red Sox remained a simple grounder or fly ball away from victory. To set up a force out at every base, Papelbon walked Torii Hunter intentionally. That brought Vladimir Guerrero to the plate. On the very first pitch to one of baseball’s beset bad-ball hitters, Papelbon gave up a single to center. Guerrero’s hit, a leaning over-the-plate smack of a low and outside fastball, scored Figgins and Abreu and gave the Angels the 7-6 victory.

Those Are The Details, Now For The Headlines: The elimination of the Redbirds and Bosox now sets the wheels in motion for the offseason in both Boston and St. Louis. There’s a lot to do. Fans of “the Nation” face some big questions: about the future of David Ortiz and the cost of Jason Bay. The team is hardly in need of a major overhaul, yet the horses that have consistently put it into the off season are aging or hobbled. The entire left side of the Boston infield is in question: Mike Lowell can’t play third forever and the team has no ready answer at shortstop. “Phtttt . . . c’mon” — fans of the Nation say: what about Jed Lowrie? Well, what about him? Maybe Baseball Reference is lying, but their stats show him hitting .147 in 32 games. Hell, there’s a shortstop in Washington who hits a damn sight better than that and he’s no damn good at all . . .   

The Redbirds are younger, but the questions might be more pertinent: whether to pony up the big bucks it will take to keep Matt Holliday in left and (just like the Red Sox) what to do at third. Mark DeRosa is a free agent and while he likes St. Louis he will test the free agent market. Then too, while shortstop seems set for the River City Nine, rookie phenom Brendan Ryan hit a scorching .083 in the playoffs and looked shaky in the field. Redbird fans have the same reaction to this negativity as their Bosox buddies: “Oh yeah, well what about Troy Glaus?” Okay, right. Troy Glaus: who left his right shoulder somewhere in Toronto and hasn’t been the same since. Maybe he’ll return to his 2008 form (.270, 27 home runs), but it’s a pretty big maybe. Then too, number three starter Joel Pineiro is a free agent and would be a number one starter on most major league teams: including the Nats (now there’s an idea). Oddly, whether Holliday or DeRosa or Pineiro decide to stay in St. Louis might hinge more on the fate of Tony LaRussa and Dave Duncan than on how much money Billy DeWitt puts on the table. LaRussa and Duncan’s contracts are up and both are rumored headed to Cincinnati, to team up with their old St. Louis G.M. pal Walt Jocketty . . .

The Colorado Rockies held off the rallying Philadelphia Phillies at Citizens Bank Park on Thursday to take the second game in their five game series, 5-4. The key for the Purples was an unlikely two run homer off the bat of catcher Yorvit Torrealba, who hadn’t had a four base knock since May. Torrealba’s knock was complemented by solid pitching from Rockies’ starter Aaron Cook and bullpen aces Jose Contreras, Matt Belisle, Rafael Betancourt, Franklin Morales and all-world closer Huston Street (above). The Heltons, who won during the regular season by counting on the bats of an unlikely mix of new heroes, depended on the bat of yet another unknown newcomer: in this case it was left fielder Carlos “Cargo” Gonzalez. Gonzalez — a former Showboat prospect and a throw-in in the off season Oakland-Colorado Matt Holliday-for-Huston Street trade — spent much of the last two seasons in triple-A, while Denver’s front office waited for him to pan out. Gonzalez got his chance this year, after a series of injuries made room for him in the Colorado outfield. On Thursday, the fleet Venezuelan went 3-5 to spark the otherwise sleepy Rockies’ line up.

When the Oakland A’s got Matt Holliday from the Colorado Rockies in the Huston Street trade back in November of 2008, they thought their search for a big bat was over: the Stillwater, Oklahoma native was a three time all star and three time silver slugger and he’d been named the 2007 World Series MVP. But Holliday didn’t seem to fit in in Oakland (he hit an otherwise anemic .286 with 11 home runs in 93 games), and on July 24, 2009 Oakland A’s guru Billy Beane swapped him to St. Louis for three top prospects: Brett Wallace, Clayton Mortensen and Shane Peterson. In St. Louis, Holliday tore the cover off the ball — hitting .353 with 13 home runs in just 63 games, and propelling the Redbirds into the post season. He was just what Tony La Russa ordered.

Holliday’s post season experience gave St. Louis the confidence they needed against L.A. With Albert Pujols and Holliday in the middle of their order and Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright their big guns as starters, St. Louis was set to head into L.A. to face Joe Torre’s big bats. L.A. took the first game, with a surprisingly shaky outing by Carpenter. But St. Louis came back to dominate the second game: and it looked like the Redbirds were set to even the series at one game apiece. But with two outs in the ninth ining and St. Louis leading, the otherwise sure-handed Holliday dropped a sinking liner off the bat of first sacker James Loney to give the Dodgers new life. Casey Blake then walked and former Nats Ronnie Belliard singled home the tying run, before Mark Loretta’s short centerfield single provided the 3-2 walk off win. “It’s tough to swallow,” Holliday said after the game. “Obviously, I feel terrible. But I just missed the ball. It hit my stomach. I think I can catch a ball hit right at me.” The Trolleys now lead the series, 2-0.

Garrett Mock and Adam Wainwright threw a classic pitchers’ duel at Busch Stadium on Sunday, but the Nats fell to the Redbirds, 2-1 to drop the third game of a three game set. Mock and Wainwright traded pitch-for-pitch through six complete, until Mock left a 3-2 pitch up in the strike zone against Albert Pujols, which turned out to be the difference in the game. Pujols stroked the mistake into centerfield, ending the deadlock and giving the Cards the win. Both bullpens closed out the game in near-perfection, as Nats’ bats could not provide an answer against a trio of Cards’ pitchers. The Nats accounted for only four hits in the game: one each by Willingham, Dukes, Orr and Bard. It was a tough series for D.C. hitters — but a particularly tough last game, as they faced one of the hottest pitchers in baseball, and arguably one of the contenders for the Cy Young Award. The masterful Wainwright had only one shaky inning and is now 16-7 on the year. 

Garrett Mock dueled Adam Wainwright in St. Louis (AP/Tom Gannam)

Sunday’s game was one of the best of the year by Mock, who was spotting his breaking stuff nearly perfectly. But the pitch to Pujols, Mock said, will probably keep him awake: ”The pitch that’s going to cost me some sleep tonight is the one that he got a hit on that scored the second run,” Mock said. “I wasn’t trying to throw the ball there, obviously — not trying to throw the ball anywhere where he could hit it. I feel like I did do a good job of executing my pitches today, but that particular pitch, I’ve got to be better than that.” Cardinals manager Tony La Russa had praise for Washington’s starter. ”I just called Jim Riggleman and said, ‘Whoever decided to put Mock in the rotation, it was a good decision,’” La Russa said. “Boy, he was very good.”

After the game, the franchise announced the departure of Ronnie Belliard for the sunny climes of L.A., where he will find service with the Trolleys. Ronnie’s gotta be as pleased as punch to be headed to a contender, after riding the pines for most of the season behind Anderson Hernandez, now riding the pines for the Chokes, and Adrian Gonzalez. Not surprisingly, Belliard was of two minds on the trade: “I’m happy because I’m going to L.A. and that team is in first place,” he said. “But I’m sad because I am going to leave a lot of friends. I’ve been here for the last three years and I made a lot of friends.” Belliard had been playing well since the All Star break, hitting .325 with five home runs and 22 RBIs. He’d been getting more playing time. The Nats received minor league righthander Luis Garcia and a player to be named in the swap.

The Orioles might, truly, be one of the forgotten teams of baseball. Fated to play in the A.L. East, the little orange birds are mired in last place, 28 games behind the Yankees — and only eight wins better than the Nats. But there’s hope in Birdland, and not simply because the O’s have won six of their last 11. The team arguably now has one of the best outfields in all of baseball, a clear contender for the rookier of the year award, and perhaps one of the league’s premier young pitchers. All of this was on display on Sunday, when the O’s took on the Naps in Baltimore and coasted to an easy win behind the power arm of rookie Brian Matusz. All of 22, the former first round (fourth overall) pick in the 2008 draft, is the thinking man’s pitcher, who studies game-day videos of himself to determine how best to spot his killer curve, then adjusts his arm slot accordingly. Matusz threw 97 pitches yesterday, 67 of them for strikes. He held the Indians to four hits over seven innings.

Matusz isn’t a surprise: he’s a can’t miss pitcher who won’t miss. The surprise is Felix Pie — a former Cubbie who has now, shockingly, set down roots in left field after going through nearly three years of trying to figure out how to hit major league pitching. Pie has been on a tear, raising his average over the last two months to a respectable .272 and showing some power; he now has seven home runs (a laughable total, we suppose, except that the punch-and-judy Dominican wasn’t supposed to have any at all). Pie weighed in to help Matusz on Sunday, jacking a two run homer in the third. He’s hitting .383 since August 14.

Pie is a nice addition in the outfield, completing a trio that includes Adam Jones in center and Nick Markakis in right. If Jones was playing in New York or Boston, we venture to guess, people would be describing him for what he is: the best young outfielder in all of baseball. The Pie-Jones-Markakis trio has kicked Noland Reimold, a contender for rookie of the year, into the D.H. spot. Reimold’s hot bat has been a surprise for the MacPhail’s this year: the 25-year-old climbed his way, hand-over-hand through the Baltimore system, before the front office gave him a grudging look. He was a prospect that was once ranked near the bottom in the O’s system. But he’s produced and it looks like he’s in Baltimore to stay.

Okay: things aren’t all that great in Baltimore and the fans are restless. How can they be otherwise. The team is in last place. They’re certainly not going to win a pennant next year, or maybe even the year after. But the MacPhail plan is on track — and if the outfield of Pie, Jones and Markakis ever hit together, the Baltimore Orioles could become one of the most formidable teams in all of baseball and a challenger to “the nation” and the evil empire. With Matusz they have the beginnings of a young staff, the only other ingredient they need. And so, after an era of irrational interference from a know-it-all owner, the Orioles are finally on the right track. If they only had a little more pitching.

Felix Pie (left) is congratulated by Melvin Mora after homering against the Indians

Matt Holliday loves St. Louis. Since coming to the Cardinals, the former Colorado Rockies-Oakland Athletics outfielder is hitting .376 with a .438 OBP for the Redbirds. On Saturday, his three run homer all but decided the 9-4 contest, giving the loss to Nats’ starter Craig Stammen. And so after taking two of three from the struggling Cubs in Chicago, the Nats have now dropped two in St. Louis, but with hopes that the team can recover on Sunday in the final game of a three game set. On Sunday night, the Nats will travel to San Diego to take on the resurgent Friars, who are riding a  miraculous three game winning streak against the sinking Florida Marlins. Holliday’s homer came in the first, and while it did not seal the game for the Redbirds, it cast a bright light on the Cardinals’ strength since the trading deadline, when Holliday arrived: a team that could break out the big bats and score a slew of runs in backing what is one of the N.L. strongest starting staffs.

A disappointed Elijah Dukes struck out with the bases loaded in the 7th (AP/To Gannam)

“That’s what makes their lineup good,” Stammen said. “They’ve got multiple guys that can hurt you, back-to-back-to-back,” Craig Stammen admitted after the game. “When I went out there, I was like, ‘You know what? Have fun. Have fun trying to get the best hitters in the game out.’ And for the most part, it was kind of fun, except when they got me.” Stammen was not only victimized by Holliday. A key error by Cristian Guzman in the fifth inning helped the Cards score four unearned runs after two outs. Stammen defended his shortstop. Guzman has made enough plays for me this year that I’m not really worried about the one mistake that he makes,” said starter Craig Stammen. Adam Dunn provided Washington’s power, hitting his 35th home run in the 6th.

Down On Half Street: It seems the only time anyone in the N.L. Least can win a game is when they play each other. At least that’s the way it’s been lately. The Mets, reeling from a raft of injuries and the effects of age, were pummeled by the Cubs on national television on Saturday, 11-4, with Cubs supersub Jake Fox hitting a grand slam off of Mets youngster Bobby Parnell. Parnell is the hope of the future, but he’s had a rocky August. Nevertheless, the team pledges that “The Bobby Parnell Project” as they call it, will continue. Parnell is fairly philosophical about it all, admitting that his last outings have been “up and down.” Mostly down, actually . . .

It’s not possible for things to be worse in Florida, but they (nearly) are. You get the feeling that this is a ballclub that is on the verge of taking itself apart. On Friday, versus the little brown priests, Chris Volstad barely made it to the top of the dugout steps before he was shipped out to New Orleans.  Volstad, all 6-8 of him, lasted 1.2 innings (but just barely) and gave up six earned runs. He had a 5.08 ERA in the show. (We’ll take him.) On Saturday, the Marlins (hoping to catch the Phillies) sent out their ace, Ricky Nalasco. But they forgot to bring their bats. In six innings they mustered four hits against no-name Friars’ hurler Wade LeBlanc. Don’t underestimate Wade — he has an ERA of 9.58. Either Wade looked like Roger McDowell, or the Phish looked like the Bad News Bears. One guess . . .

Up in Philadelphia, things are proceeding apace for the Phuzzies, who are breezing their way to a division crown. Out in South Philly, the guys who stand around on the corner and talk tough are even trying to figure out the dimensions of the statue to Cliff Lee that will grace the front of the Philadelphia Art Museum — where they never go. Right next to the one of that other great Philly cultural icon, Rocky Balboa. But the Cliff Lee Express was derailed on Saturday, when the Chops decapitated Lee in front of a sold out crowd at Citizens Bank Park. The Chops barrage of homers (Diaz, Escobar, Anderson, Jones) reached such a din that it was like listening to the 1812 Overture. “It’s hard to get good results when you’re throwing pitches belt high and down the middle of the plate,” Lee said after the game. ”That’s basically what happened. I feel good about throwing strikes, working ahead and not walking people, but I put myself in positions to put them away and I missed up and down the middle. If you consistently do that, that’s what’s going to happen.” The final butcher’s bill? 9-1 Atlanta.

John Lannan’s stellar eight inning performance on Friday night — which should have led to a Nats’ win — was reversed with one swing of Albert Pujols’ bat in the ninth inning, as our Anacostia Nine lost to the St Louis Cardinals 3-2. But after the game, it wasn’t Pujols’ walk-off home run, given up by Jason Bergman, that Lannan regretted, but his own eighth inning pitch that pinch hitter Khalil Greene muscled out of Busch Stadium that tied the game at two. Greene, who has struggled all season (and is hitting near the Mendoza line) came to the plate with Lannan clearly in control, but lifted a Lannan pitch that was up in the zone into the Busch Stadium bleachers. The homer shocked Lannan as much as it energized the St. Louis crowd. Without that homer, Lannan speculated, he might have made it into the ninth: and the Nats’ loss might easily have counted as a win.

Lannan was nearly spectacular: reversing a series of indifferent outings. He threw only 91 pitches, more than two-thirds of them for strikes. “That was more like what we saw earlier in the year,” interim manager Jim Riggleman said of Lannan’s performance. “He was outstanding against a good hitting ballclub. He got a lot of ground balls. He pitched a great ballgame. He got behind on Khalil Greene, and Khalil has a little power. And he had to put one in there, and Khalil took advantage of it. That was the big blow.” In fact, the big blow came one inning later, against Jason Bergman, who served up a classic in-the-wheelhouse pitch to Pujols, who rarely misses. Bergman’s third pitch of the night was his last, as Pujols’ jacked just one under the second deck in left field.

Down On Half Street: Last Monday, “Baseball Tonight’s” Buck Showalter presented his plan to realign major league baseball, arguing that the ”integrity of the MLB schedule could use an overhaul.” The way to do that, Showalter argued, is to get rid of two weak teams (the Ray and Marlins), do something about the DH (either keep it or get rid of it) and realign the league into four divisions of seven teams each. The divisions would be renamed for Babe Ruth, Henry Aaron, Roberto Clemente and Jackie Robinson. Each team would play every other team exactly six times: three home and three away and because the teams are geographically aligned, the economic savings would be obvious. Not bad. It’s a compelling idea and shouldn’t dismissed. So watch the video, it’s entertaining. The former Rangers’ skipper is right about baseball’s current problems: the schedule is badly unbalanced, attendance is weak in at least four markets and it makes no sense for (say) the Red Sox and Yankees to play each other eighteen times.

There’s been a lot of comment about Showalter’s plan, most of it negative. Umpbump points out that Showalter’s plan worsens the problem it’s intended to solve: ”None of the alleged benefits of these new divisions that Buck and [Steve] Berthiaume spend so much time praising will come to pass at all if each team plays every other team exactly 6 times. Teams will have to fly farther, more often, fans will have even more games outside their time zone they’ll have to stay up late for, and regional rivalries will be much reduced because the fans will only see that rival team three times a year.” Bleacher Report, meanwhile, rightly reports the obvious: “Some of the teams who don’t win now would go out of the frying pan and into the fire. The Nationals would not only still have to compete with the Mets and Phils, but they would pick up the Yanks and Red Sox as division rivals.” The Fair Ball notes that convincing the owners in Tampa and Miami that they should cash it in for the good of baseball is probably not going to work. (Truth is, if I had my way, I’d get rid of the Toronto Blue Jays, but only because I can’t stand them.)

Realignment in baseball is worth doing, but radical realignment isn’ possible – and it isn’t necessary. It’s time to kick the Brewers back into the American League (to help resolve the problems caused by the unbalanced schedule), get rid of the D.H. (add an extra player to each team’s roster in five years, to satisfy the players’ union), work with weak franchises to ensure the building of new stadiums (like Tampa), negotiate an increase in the luxury tax on high salary teams (and require recipients of the tax to spend it on player development) and allow teams to trade draft picks in the first year player draft. These are fairly modest proposals and they’ve been heard before: their chief elegance is that they’re actually doable.  

Still, there’s something about the Showalter proposal that is oddly compelling. It keeps you awake at night, thinking about the possibilities. Is it true that putting the Nats in “The Babe Ruth Division” consigns them to interminable mediocrity, with little hope of ever seeing the postseason? I wondered this last night, eyes staring at the ceiling, as I heard St. Louis fans cheer as Albert Pujols circled the bases. And I began to think about what the Nats might do in “The Babe Ruth Division,” say, next year. And it occurred to me. It might not be so bad. So instead of grouping the teams alphabetically (as Showalter had done in his presentation), I ranked them in order of predicted finish for the 2010 season.

So. Whaddayathink?

The Babe Ruth Division: 2010 Season

1. New York Yankees
2. Philadelphia Phillies
3. New York Mets
4. Toronto Blue Jays
5. Washington Nationals
6. Baltimore Orioles
7. Boston Red Sox

Pretty good prediction, eh?

At the outset of the ‘09 season, baseball’s prognosticators picked the Cardinals for second place in the NL Central — or even third — behind the Cubbies, who had rejiggered their line-up to be more “balanced.” The Cubs had traded super utilityman Mark DeRosa to the Naps and signed on left handed hitting Milton “Game Board” Bradley, mixing a righthanded heavy line-up that had been swept in the playoffs at the hands of the hated Trolleys. The Cubs — a veritable set of mashers — were on the way up, the Cards (a bunch of sore arms and also-rans) were on the way down. Now, months later, the results of all those moves are in: and the Cardinals are running away with the division crown. While afficiandos focus on the Cubs’ failures, there’s more reason to argue that Cards G.M. John Mozeliak made all the right moves and all of them just at the right time. So what happened?

The Cardinals began their sprint to the top of the NL Central at the end of June: the timing coincided with their trade for Cleveland’s DeRosa. The Cards shipped reliever Chris Perez to Cleveland to land DeRosa to shore up a wobbly infield and undermanned outfield. Just one day later, DeRosa went on the DL, but the deed was done and the Cards were overjoyed with their acquisition. So was DeRosa: his last place ass had landed in a tub of first place butter: “From a selfish standpoint, I get to battle for a division title again and I’m in a good position with a great team.” Then, at the end of July, Mozeliak traded a passel of prospects to the White Elephants for Matt Holliday. It’s not simply that Holliday was a good hitter, he knew NL pitching and could provide protection behind Pujols, who was starting to see more walks than Cards manager Tony La Russa liked. Holliday cashed in a Mozeliak’s trust, setting the league on fire.

But Holliday was just one piece of a make-over that Mozeliak had in mind. Two days before sealing the Holliday deal, the Cards G.M. traded away Chris Duncan to Boston for under appreciated shortstop Julio Lugo, who had worn out his welcome with the Red Sox. With acquisition Khalil Greene (whom Mozeliak had hoped would plug the Cards hole at the position) not working out, the Redbirds were desperate to find a solution. Lugo hasn’t exactly been ripping up the NL, but La Russa has done his usual sleight-of-hand in getting the most from him: he starts at second against left handed pitchers (for left swinging Skip Schumaker) and at short when breakout youngster Brendan Ryan needs a breather. So far so good: such mixing and matching would not have been possible in Boston, where psychologically hobbled Theo Epstein would never have subbed for Dustin Pedroia.  

There’s more. The acquisition of John Smoltz, it is now reported, is the result of a recommendation to La Russa and Mozeliak by the newly acquired DeRosa, who told them that the future hall of famer would fit in nicely in St. Louis. The Cardinals bit: outbidding the Marlins, Dodgers and Rangers for his services. For the Cubs (and the rest of the N.L. Central), DeRosa can be counted as the latest in a series of team curses. He has become a kind of Jason of the N.L. Central — an unforgiving and murderous nightmare, taking retribution on the Baby Bears for not having enough confidence in him to keep him around.

There’s no question. Signing Smoltz was a gamble for the Cardinals, but so far (at least) it seems to have worked out: in Smoltz’s first outing against the Friars, the righty threw five innings of three hit ball. He looked sharp and confident. He looked at home on the mound. He looked like he was back. The outing raised eyebrows around major league baseball: maybe the old guy still has something left. Yeah, maybe. But Smoltz doesn’t have to be the lights-out John Smoltz of old. He just has to pitch well enough to give the Cardinals another arm in their already superb arsenal of arms: Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Joel Pineiro. Smoltz could set the Cards up for a good run in the offseason. He could bring them into the post-season as the team to beat. And wouldn’t it be nice to see St. Louis facing off against that other great team in the league: The Los Angeles Dodgers The Colorado Rockies.

Josh Willingham’s two grand slam home runs powered the Washington Nationals to a 14-6 rout of the Milwaukee Brewers at Miller Park on Monday night. Willingham became the 14th player in major league history to hit two grand slams in a single game. The first Willingham blast was hit in the fifth, the second in the sixth. Ryan Zimmerman added one of his own (his 18th), in the eighth. The rap against Willingham is that while he has shown power, he usually homers with no one on base; presumably that rap will be forgotten after his impressive display in Milwaukee. The first recorded double grand slam game, according to major league baseball, took place in 1936, the last occurred in 2003 –when Bill Mueller hit two for the Red Sox.

You have to believe that the Nats’ were happy to come away from tonight’s contest with a win — Craig Stammen proved ineffective in four-and-two-thirds innings of work: he gave up nine hits and five earned runs before being relieved by Jason Bergman, who pitched to six batters and gave up two hits. Sean Burnett and Logan Kensing closed out the game without giving up a run. Burnett lowered his ERA to 2.53. Nyjer Morgan’s three-for-five night pushed him over the .300 mark; he is now hitting .303 and has become the club’s everyday centerfielder. Rightfully so: since joining the Nats, Morgan has hit .388.

Willingham was not the only player to hit a grand slam tonight. Fernando Tatis hit a grand slam in the New York Mets 7-3 win against the Rockies. It was the New Yorker’s third win in a row; and Chicago Cubs’ left fielder Alfonso Soriano hit a walk-off grand slam homer against the Astros in Wrigley Field. The Soriano homer gave the streaking Cubs a 5-1 win over division rivals Houston . . . The Cubs need all the wins they can get, now that St. Louis has solidified the middle of its line-up with the addition of Matt Holliday, who is hitting like he’s happy to be back in the National League. Holliday’s arrival, coupled with the return of Mark DeRosa from the DL and the addition of Red Sox castoff Julio Lugo gives the “new look Cardinals” one of the toughest line-ups in the NL. The Cardinals look like they can beat anyone — except the Phillies of course: this last weekend the Redbirds lost two of three to the Phuzzies, and were outscored 24-16 . . . The only thing the Cubs, Cards and suddenly mortal Trolleys need is for Philadelphia to get another pitcher. And they might — they’re still the lead team in the hunt for Blue Jay ace Roy Halladay. If the Phillies land Halladay, the Cards can start waving white flags from the top of Busch Stadium . . .

On a day of great hitting, Tim Lincecum pitched a complete game, striking out fifteen while giving up only four hits against the Ahoys. The fifteen strike outs tied a franchise record held by Gaylord Perry. Lincecum is now 11-3 with a 2.30 ERA . . . The Giants are agog over landing Cleveland Indians’ Ryan Garko, a player they say they “coveted.” Really? It’s possible to “covet” Matt Holliday or Roy Halladay . . . but . . . Not that it was a bad deal: Garko is hitting .285 with eleven home runs. The Giants needed a bat and gave up relatively little to get a good one. Still, Garko is no Matt Holliday (whom the Redbirds, rightly, “coveted”) and you have to believe the Giants will need an even bigger bat to compete for the wild card. The Giants just lost two of three to the Rockies — their competition in the NL West. They’re now nine games behind the Dodgers and one game behind those same Rockies in the wild card . . . that said, the Giants’ acquisition of Garko plugs the hole they had at first base, which means it’s unlikely they will pony up for Nick Johnson, whose price was likely much steeper than the one they paid for Garko . . .

The San Diego Padres capitalized on four Washington Nationals’ errors Friday night to take the first of a three-game set from our Anacostia Boys, 6-2. After taking two of three from the Mets, the Nats reverted to the sloppy defense that had characterized the first part of their season: two errant throws to first base, a dropped pop-up in foul territory and the misplay of a rolling double in the left field corner. That’s one error on Garrett Mock, one on Jason Bergman, one error on catcher Josh Bard and one on left fielder Adam Dunn. “It was just a bad effort,” interim Manager Jim Riggleman said after the game.

Trade Winds: The St. Louis Cardinals got their man, trading three prospects to the Oakland A’s for outfielder Matt Holliday. The key to the trade for Oakland was the acquistion of third baseman Brett Wallace, who may eventually end up at first for the white elephants. The former Rockie, Holliday paid immediate dividends for the Redbirds, going four for five with one RBI in the Cardinals 8-1 win over the Phillies. Beset by uncertainty over their own financial situation — and with ownership of the ballclub undetermined — the Cubs will have difficulty matching the Cardinals’ upgrade. The Holliday trade reflects the kind of mid-season moves that both the Cards and Cubs are noted for: needing a big bat in May of last year, the Cubs signed free agent Jim Edmonds — a move that fueled their run to the NL Central flag. This year, it’s the Astros who need the bat, particularly after it was announced that Astros’ first baseman Lance Berkman was being sent to the DL for a calf strain.

 

New Redbird Matt Holliday Went 4-5 Friday (AP Photo/Tom Mihalek)

The news in the NL Central will have an immediate impact on the Nats: it effectively takes the Cardinals out of the running for Adam Dunn (whose availability they reportedly inquired about this last week), while Berkman’s injury puts Nick Johnson on the table for the Astros. Houston called up Edwin Maysonet from triple-A Round Rock to take Berkman’s place, but he’s not the answer at first. The regular first base backup is Darin Erstad, but he’s also injured. Johnson seems a perfect fit for the Astros, with his high OBP and good glove. Astros’ players say they will “step up” to replace Berkman, but it will be difficult to replicate his numbers. ”I’ll just say Lance, being honest and sincere, is a piece of our team that is going to be difficult to replace,” Astros’ outfielder Carlos Lee, who leads the team in RBIs, said. ”The quality of player and what he means to this lineup, it’s going to be difficult to replace Lance. I think we’ll have to get it together and carry all the weight.”

Trade rumors involving Nationals’ players have escalated over the last week: the Phillies are said to be interested in Josh Willingham, the Tigers in Willingham and Dunn and, most recently, the Rangers have reportedly sent scouts to look at Nationals’ hitters. The Nats are said to be looking for “prospects” — primarily pitchers. The trade of Willingham to the Phillies becomes less likely if the Phuzzies pony up a handful of their best prospects (and pitcher J.A. Happ) to Toronto for Roy Halladay. And shipping Dunn or Willingham to Detroit (where the Nats are said to be scouting the Tigers’ double-A affiliate) seems perverse — trading players who are actually performing for a bunch of 21-year-olds who might (or might not) turn into major league players. That we got. Then too, a trade of Willingham to either Philly or Detroit means that we will be forced to watch a struggling Austin “Mendoza” Kearns (.198) learn how to hit. A good decision — but only if you want to drive what’s left of your fanbase out of the ballpark.

My friend Dwilly (his picture below) — handsome guy, don’t you think? –

… anyway, my friend Dwilly has said he will post his predictions, but he was pretty lousy about his criticism of my own picks: “I agree that Dontrelle’s best days are behind him,” he wrote, “but the best pitching staff in Cleveland?!? You’re smoking the wrong stuff.” So I checked, and my good friend — the man in the floppy hat — is just dead wrong. I’m smoking the right stuff. And what is that stuff? Why it’s Special Chicago Cubs Victory Weed! that’s what it is. This will be the year the Cubs will finally break the curse, though it will take some time. You see, the Cubs have “grass is greener” disease: they think if another team has a player (any player) he must be pretty good and they want him. Exhibit A: this guy signed this guy (oops, sorry, I meant this guy )and sent this guy to AAA. Does Jim Hendry really believe that Reed Johnson is a better ballplayer than Matt Murton? C’mon. Then the Cubs proudly announced their starting five, which included Ryan Dempster and Jason Marquis. I marked the occasion by vomiting.

So here’s what’ll happen. The Cubs will play .500 ball until the end of May, at which point Lou will throw three buckets of Gatorade around the clubhouse, scream at some people, send Dempster back to the bullpen (or give him his unconditional release), trade Jason Marquis and make Matt Murton outfielder number four. Lou did this last year, tinkering and tinkering and then fighting with the umps and the Cubs were better for it. The guy can flat out manage. And when he does that — when he tells Hendry the Cubs are Manishevitz with what they have and let’s-just-play-the-fricking-game — here’s how I’ll feel:

Our beloved Nats are a different story entirely — but hardly a bad one. John Kruk said that he thought Ryan Zimmerman could hit 50 home runs this year. Well, maybe not: but 40 is certainly in the cards. But the story for the Nats will be the comeback of Austin Kearns, who will hit at least 25 home runs and bat a solid .290, putting all his critics to shame. Now I know that Kearns looks a little, well … Kentucky … but he’s a gamer. The Nats will struggle, forcing Manny to make the decisions he doesn’t want to make — he’ll bring Tyler Clippard or Garrett Mock or Ross Detwiler in from Columbus (or wherever) and one of these guys will step up. And then Manny will make the most important decision he can make: he’ll put Dimitri Young back at first. Why? Because these kids need him. Last year, during John Lannan’s second outing — when he was visibly nervous — the camera caught Dimitri at first base staring at him, nodding and saying: “C’mon John, you can do this.” And I thought: now we know why they gave that man $10 million. He’s the heart of the team. He’s worth every penny of it. Anything else? Oh yeah, Lastings will do well in Center, but the question of whether Elijah Dukes can or will do whatever he is supposed to do (or whether it will be Wily Mo all the time), will be answered by another question: “Can Justin Maxwell play left field?” And long about the end of July, the Odalis Perez era in Washington will end.

And not a moment too soon.

The Mets and Phillies are the class of the rest of the league, though I wouldn’t stick with the Mets for too long: it takes more than a year to recover from a collapse like that (and wasn’t it a thing of beauty!) and the Braves will catch ‘em. The Dodgers will eat up the West (have you seen the Padres outfield?) and the Rockies will revert to form: Jeff Francis is their only pitcher. I have officially put the Arizona Assholes last, but only because (as you know) I hate ‘em. But they’re a hell of a team. That leaves the Brew Crew (who are in the wrong league) and the also-rans of the Central. The Crew will self-destruct because the problem in Milwaukee is not on the field, it’s in the clubhouse. Ned will be gone by the end of the year.

So here we go:

National League East 

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National League Central

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National League West

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I’m going to play some favorites here, but this is what this is all about. 2008 will be the first year that a Nats player gets votes for the MVP (Zimmerman), but the award will go to Troy Tulowitzki. Check his numbers: There’s just no end to what this guy can do and everyone should see a Rockie’s game just to watch the left side of their infield. The Rockie’s problems are on the mound and they did little in the off-season to solve them. As for the “Assholes,” my hatred apart, Brandon Webb is something to behold — and certainly good enough to win the Cy Young. It’s the Dodgers in the playoffs, but only by a process of elimination: the West is filled with teams that want to pass the baton to someone else. In the end, Joe Torre will know what to do and he will do it — with the help of Dodger pitching. That leaves the Phillies, Cubs and (after the collapse of the Mets in, oh say — August) Braves. For the first time since ’45 those lovable losers, those mighty slugs, the team that traded Lou Brock, the choking folding Cubs of ’69, those little bears by the lakeside, those insulters of goats, take the league and head to Cleveland for the World Series.

Where they get swept.